a Year ago, in June 2019, the Russian-Chinese strategic partnership has entered a new era. This was during a meeting in Moscow has announced that Vladimir Putin and XI Jinping. At that time the commercial war of America against China has not yet reached its peak. In China then preferred to talk about “trading frictions”, instead of a full-scale trade war. Still had hope for the talks, which without superfluous noise were the representatives of China and the United States.
Indeed 15 Jan 2020 was signed “the first phase” trade agreements, highly favorable to the American side. However, in Hong Kong, the leaders of the demonstrators not only were the columns of people under the American flag, but even went to Washington, where the offices of the state Department and Congress discussed the plans of detach from China. November 17, 2019, the President, trump has signed the law on the protection of democracy and civil rights in Hong Kong, an analog anti-Russian “Magnitsky act”. The open support of the US and Britain contributed to the victory in the municipal elections of the opposition. Almost at the same time, with U.S. support, Taiwan’s voters supported politicians leading the case to a final separation from China. Expanded the delivery of American weapons, increase in coordinated military exercises of the U.S. 7th fleet and the Taiwanese Navy and air force.
However, all these, to put it mildly, hostile actions were blocked by the words and deeds trump after the occurrence of the Wuhan epidemic coronavirus. Instead of studying the positive experience of China in the isolation of foci of infection and to participate in international efforts, he declared China a personal vendetta. Have fallen on China charges almost in the organization of the pandemic, there were demands compensation. The white house began to tear one by one the threads of economic, scientific, humanitarian relations, of which for years directed against the Soviet Union “antihegemonic interaction” was woven the fabric of bilateral relations.
the Intensity of these actions dispelled the last doubts about the depth of anti-China instincts of a President trump and the Washington establishment. In Beijing came to a consensus — it is not just about “trading frictions”, and on full-scale cold war against Chinese civilization. The consequences of this conclusion were sharp performances of employees of the foreign Ministry of China and national press, demonstrations of military power. But the relief decisions were announced in late June during the session of the national people’s Congress (Parliament).
These decisions in the economy are the beginning of preparations for a protracted conflict. So was the experts accepted the rejection of the traditional planned borders of the GDP growth, emphasis on servicing the needs of the domestic market, the savings in public spending even in overcoming the consequences of the epidemic, to build infra��traktornogo construction. The unexpected decision to adopt a law on national security to Hong Kong meant a challenge to Washington, which marked the immunity there the boor as the “red line” by adopting the law on the protection of democracy and civil rights.
All points over “i” in the assessment of the status and prospects of relations with America have placed the commander-in-chief, the General Secretary of the Communist party and President of China XI Jinping. Speaking on June 26 to servicemen — participants of the NPC session, he gave the orders: “to Consciously prepare for the worst case. Increase military training and combat training. Promptly and effectively deal with all types of difficult situations. Firmly safeguard sovereignty, security and development interests of the state.”
“New normality” in relations between Beijing and Washington could not affect Moscow. Even after last year’s meeting between Putin and XI Jinping Russia took a few eloquent gestures. China after challenging thought was given to the technology of early warning system for missile attack (EWS). Our Chinese strategic bombers flew together in the direction of the American bases in South Korea and Japan. But now, a year later, in the face of rapidly growing threats to the security of both countries we can talk of further rapprochement. Russia and China are not in vain called and called “strategic rivals” in the “concept of national security of the United States” in 2017.
What are the parameters of a new round of the “new era of strategic partnership” between Moscow and Beijing? This still can only guess. Regular meeting of Putin and XI Jinping suspended due to a pandemic, they exchange messages of closed and open calls. The foreign ministries and presidential offices in Moscow and Beijing is now vigorously preparing documents for the meeting, possible at the beginning of September for the celebrations in connection with 75-th anniversary of the victory over Japan and the end of the Second world war. It is hoped that the results of the meetings of the two leaders with mandates for a long Board, will be adequate long-term challenges to their powers.
Now entails two development scenario: inertial and disruptive. The first involves a slow increase cooperation in trade, scientific-technical cooperation, military-political relations. Second, given the new conditions immediately raises all the key areas of strategic partnership to a higher orbit. This applies above all to trade and investment cooperation, lags far behind military technology.
In terms of sanctions against the two countries and the inevitable after overcoming the pandemic COVID-19 accelerating disintegration of the world market n�� macro-regions it is expedient to raise the question of the establishment of the economic macro-region China–Russia or China–the Eurasian economic Union. Along the way there are obstacles — both objective and subjective. The first is, for example, the continuing discrepancy payment systems.
the Second obstacle is the residual mutual distrust of political and business elites of both countries are still partially oriented “Washington consensus”. Affect and mood of ordinary people. In Russia remain suspicions in the desire of China to “take Siberia and the far East.” In China without the involvement of the regional authorities supported the historically incorrect version of the accession of Siberia and the Far East of the Russian Empire. A manifestation of this sentiment was a recent uproar in the Chinese social networks in connection with the 160th anniversary of Vladivostok. Numerous posts have made this possible Beijing Treaty of 1860 was called the “inequitable”, and the Russian city-port called Haishenwei. This story quickly went beyond the Chinese news space.
In such conditions to speak about the lack of historical problems means to bury your head in the sand. It’s time to deploy the media of both countries information campaign on the inviolability of existing borders, to explain non-violent, objective territorial demarcation of the two countries never fought each other. To help heal the “collective unconscious” of the two Nations could new basic agreement.
the Treaty on good-neighborliness, friendship and cooperation between the Russian Federation and people’s Republic of China was signed on 16 July 2001 for a period of 20 years. Provides for the extension of its validity, but the expiration next year of the basic term gives the opportunity now to think about a new document. He must finally confirm the inviolability of the state border in its entirety — taking into account signed in 2004 Agreement on the border in the last an inconsistent plot, which would eliminate the phantom pain.
in addition, a new contract, even without signing a formal military Alliance capable of raising the level of interaction in combating new challenges, including, for example, guaranteed joint response to nuclear attack on any of the parties. Chinese and Russian armed forces will achieve an unprecedented level of coordination of efforts to ensure security both on Land and in the oceans, in space and cyberspace. Moscow and Beijing can become the guarantors of global stability.
Our leaders in dramatically changing circumstances is as soon as possible a new analysis of the whole complex of global and bilateral relations coord��of the nation’s long-term plans. To put the inevitable course of history in the service of national interests — that is the urgent task for the President, for all thinking people.