WASHINGTON, June 24. /TASS/. the international monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its April forecast of Russia’s GDP is expected to fall by 6.6% this year, but will rise 4.1% next year. This is stated in the published on Wednesday the July Bulletin of the IMF “prospects of development of world economy”.
As noted in the report, the Fund downgraded its forecasts for Russia’s GDP in 2020, 1.1 percentage points (PP), and the following year improved by 0.6 p. p.
the updated report notes that “the pandemic failures and a significant reduction in disposable income for oil exporters after a sharp decline in fuel prices will lead to a sharp economic slowdown in Russia”, as well as in several other countries. The Fund also has included the Russian ruble to the currencies list, “which significantly weakened in the previous months, but since April, increased.” The list also includes the Australian dollar, Norwegian Krone, Indonesian rupiah, Mexican peso and South African Rand.
In April, the IMF predicted the fall of Russia’s GDP to 5.5% in 2020 under the effects of the spread of coronavirus infection, while in January, the Fund expected the growth of the economy at the level of 1.9%. In 2021, the Fund expected economic growth in Russia to 3.5% instead of 2% in the January forecast.
the Forecast for world GDP
the IMF also lowered its April forecast for global GDP is expected to fall by 4.9% this year, but will recover and will rise 5.4% next year. “Pandemic [caused by a novel coronavirus diseases] COVID-19 had a negative impact on economic activity in the first half of 2020 than expected, and recovery is projected to be more gradual than expected earlier,” the report said.
As indicated in the report, the Fund downgraded its forecasts for global GDP in 2020 by 1.9 percentage points (PP), and next year by 0.4 p. p.
uncertainty
the Fund noted that “the degree of uncertainty in this forecast is higher than usual.” “The baseline forecast is based on key assumptions about the impact of the pandemic,” say the experts. It is noted that in the April forecast indicated “the unprecedented decline in global economic activity due pandemic coronavirus”. “Obtained since data suggests an even deeper recession than previously predicted for a number of countries,” the document says. According to Fund “a significant blow was inflicted on the labour market” in many countries. Thus, throughout the world in the first quarter of 2020 compared with the fourth quarter of last year disappeared more than 300 million jobs.
the Average inflation in advanced economies fell by around 1.3 p. p. tothe end of 2019 to 0.4% (annualized) by April 2020, while in emerging market economies, it dropped by 1.2 p. p., to 4.2%.
According to forecasts, decline in GDP of advanced economies in 2020 will be 8%, which is 1.9 percentage points lower than the April forecast. A deep recession this year is expected in the USA (a GDP fall of 8%), Japan (5.8 percent), UK (10,2%), France (12,5%) Italy and Spain (by 12.8 percent). As expected by the IMF, in 2021, the growth rate in advanced economies will increase by 4.8%. The GDP of emerging markets will fall this year by 3%, in the following, it is expected to increase by 5.9%.
the IMF Experts urge the international community to provide financial assistance to poor countries to develop their health and ease their debt burden. Foundation stresses the need to develop a vaccine for the coronavirus was available for all countries.
