the Belarusian elections there was a unique situation. President Alexander Lukashenko openly to quarrel with Moscow and the West. The first he calls the “puppet masters” and accuses of meddling in the political life of the country, and the second asking the Belarusian President to release from prison those “dolls” of political prisoners, which only last month was 25. The rating of Lukashenko’s support has reached historic lows, and the phrase “Sasha – three percent” is now a meme. But it is obvious that the power of the Belarusian President do not just give up all the real contenders are in prison. On his side are the security forces and the whole range. “MK” spoke with the Patriarch of the Belarusian opposition, former presidential candidate campaign in 2015 by Anatoly LEBEDKO.
– in General, this campaign describes a number of features. Strategy for dealing with the virus, followed Lukashenko, has contributed to reducing his rating. Pandemic was one of the participants in this presidential race and a serious competitor to Lukashenko. He did not cope with this challenge. The credibility of the government finally fell. The second feature historical minimum support Lukashenko, who has become extremely unpopular. With this rating he misses not only the second round, but not one of the top three heavyweights. In addition, the first results of this campaign can not recognize not only the EU but Russia. Now Moscow’s support is extremely modest and not so public as it used to. Until that time, Russia has always supported Lukashenko not only politically but also financially, and resource. For the first time Russia puts eggs in different baskets. Babariko, it does not say – the person of “Gazprom”, which is an indirect link there. The Lukashenko no gold resources to bribe voters. He shows himself “a tunic”. He is the defender of sovereignty and independence. In the past the emphasis has been on dividends and handouts for seniors. Today he has nothing to buy voters, and this also explains his low rating. The economy is in poor condition and not allow him to be generous as a presidential candidate, which the king travels the country and distributes gifts to his subjects.
– Previously, it was supported by the older generation. A big role played the situation when the children began to leave the country?
– recently I was in the region on the border with Russia. We went to the village, took the portrait of Lukashenka and went to the people who voted for him in 1994. None of them told us that would support it. If earlier the basis of his electorate was the village and the elderly, now is certainly not the case. But there is one more nuance and psychological fatigue. Belarus sees one face on the screen 26, there is a big request for peremeny. This category of people was dissatisfied and pension reform, which had increased the retirement age. Reflected the fact that the younger generation is leaving the country. In Belarus, a lot of loss-making enterprises, which affects the contents of the refrigerator and wallet.
– What are the possible scenarios on 9 August?
– Today there is a real alternative to Lukashenka. It’s three people: Babariko, which is in the KGB remand prison, Sergei tikhanovski, which was placed in the remand prison of the interior Ministry, Valery Tsepkalo, which power cuts on signatures, not allowing to register. All the others: Andrei Dmitriev, social Democrat Sergei Caraceni, Anna Konopacka is spoilers. None of them scored 100 thousand signatures. People gathered in mile-long queues to vote for Tikhanovski, Babariko and Tsepkalo, but in respect of the pickets for Lukashenko and his spoilers, there was no hype. If Babariko cut on the Declaration, it will remain one of Svetlana Tikhanovski, but he was determined that she was shot. In this case, alternatives will not do, and then people can boycott these elections. It is obvious that in the case of 9 August, Lukashenko will appoint himself President, this issue will not be the end. With this lower level of support is impossible to rule the country.
Today, people demonstrate a high level of self-organization, new leaders. Now officially recognized by 25 political prisoners. But the repressive machine of the President can process only a certain number of protests. Let’s say a thousand people. With such figures, this pipeline will not fail, but he will choke if the account will go on tens and hundreds of thousands of people. Hard to say what will be on 9 August. But if you come tens of thousands of people, at least, there is intrigue.
there is Also the option with the strike, and the Prosecutor General’s office has already started to warn about administrative and criminal liability for incitement to strike. If you begin to stop businesses and organizations, it will also occur post-election scenario to which the authority does not expect. Every day in the country will happen in a revolutionary situation, the instability in one, then in another industry. It will be a continuation of the cold war and Lukashenko
You recently wrote that Anna Konopacka went on to collaborate with the KGB…
– In every authoritarian country find people who help the authorities to perform its main task-to hold on to power. Tools for this set. Spoilers, which perform the function of decoration, in every election campaign. The same Konopacka acts as a tool. She alleged the opposition, which at the same time harshly criticizes Babariko. Konopacka gut��preserves the dirty work. But there is nothing new, because all work Kgbishnye structure in all authoritarian States. For it is written in a certain scenario and it performs this role. If we believe that the main rivals of Lukashenka do not register, the same Cerecere or Dmitriev, in principle, can withdraw from the election. But Konopacka 100% will remain in this campaign, together with Lukashenko.
– Who is now Lukashenka is the main threat?
For several months, over 700 people were arrested. 25 political prisoners, and almost every day late with someone else. Basically, it’s the bloggers, the administrators telegram channels. Lukashenko understands that the Internet and social networking is one of the main threats to his power.
– whether it is Possible to draw Parallels with 1994, when the young Lukashenko has bypassed the “bison” Kebich?
Lukashenka is already a “lame duck” and the man who has no electoral support in the country. But the system now is different. With his unpopularity, he established a number of institutions, which allows him to retain power. He did privatize all the institutions of government. Power structure – the main pillar on which stands Lukashenko. In this situation, to talk about the split in the elites early enough. Although the situation can change in a matter of days, as its nomenclature – it is not ideological. They are close to Lukashenka, because there is a full trough. From all of the country’s GDP to $ 10 billion is distributed among these 3% of the population. They are motivated to protect his system. Of course, in the nomenclature outlined cracks, but they are not dangerous. The situation will change if a large number of people, despite the repression, will be released on the protests.
