Especially for “the Russian newspaper” Valery Emelyanov, analyst IR “freedom Finance” has compared the prices in Moscow and in the regions, and called the city, where developers sell housing at low prices.
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As with any commodity, the price of a house is the cost of production is the mark of the seller (developer). The average margin of developers in Moscow, is now 58 percent. The difference between the cost of the concrete box and the price, which pays for the buyer is 56.5 thousand rubles per meter.
But in the regions the situation is different. According to the Union engineers quantity surveyors, now in Russia on average one square meter in new buildings costs of construction companies in 50290 rubles, but in reality sold for 54250. In other words, the net margin is about 4 thousand rubles per square. If you take a typical apartment worth 2.5-3.5 million rubles, the margin of the Builder for it will amount to 260 thousand rubles.
But this much average figures. From the statistics of the estimates can be seen: the larger the city, the wider the margin. For example, in Kazan it is 23 thousand meters. The developer in creating standard two-bedroom apartment with a size 65 m spends about 3.7 million rubles, and sells it at 5.2 million. Turns out, 1.5 million of margin on each customer.
In St. Petersburg with the same parameters minus the expenditure of materials and labor the developer has at 29.4 thousand rubles, or about 1.9 million rubles per flat. In Vladivostok, for the same initial data – more than 2 million roubles, in Moscow – 3.7 million rubles. Technical the cost of a meter in the capital 97,2 thousand developers sell apartments in an average of 153,6 thousand for a square.
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There are regions where the opposite picture, and there is a bias in favor of buyers. For example, in Chukotka are built on 55 thousand rubles per square meter, and sell for 40 thousand rubles. In Mordovia at 44.5 thousand rubles, and sell for 42 thousand rubles. In Murmansk for 52 thousand rubles, and sell for 50 thousand rubles.
there is No demand, developers are dumping (selling goods and services at artificially low prices) in the hope to catch up with the volumes, eventually sell the apartment at a loss. These regions – approximately one third. But in the total volume of the construction market, they do not make the weather in the whole country the margin is still positive.
Where the market is heading
By the autumn of last year, the difference between the price of construction and sale price in Russia amounted to 4300 rubles per meter. Today it has shrunk to 4,000 rubles. The percentage is 8.7 percent six months ago compared to the current 8 percent.
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For such a short period is impressive dynamics. And significantly, the margin shrinks mainly due to the slowdown in the growth of market prices, not increasing costs. So, the cost of the average meter from developers increased by 1.6%, while the cost to buy the same meters by 0.9%.
In the big cities and the surrounding area the picture is different: there is an increase in costs occurs, along with all of Russia, but prices are behaving more independently. AfterDNIe six months technical value of m in Moscow, Petersburg and regions rose in equal measure by 1.6%. Thus the sales value of the meter in Moscow rose 2.3%, in St. Petersburg, 2.9%, and in Moscow region slipped 1.1%.
What will change this year
According to our forecasts, the market will continue to delamination. Expensive locations will be more expensive, cheaper cheaper. Margin in Moscow and Petersburg for the year may fall by another 2-3%, but this is not critical for developers, especially for large players. But in the regions, the situation could spiral out of control. The costs of construction, as we saw above, rising all the same, the prices for the end product (apartments) outside of large cities do not grow or even fall. And not only in the Urals but in the vicinity of the capital. So, Odintsovo over the past year, dipped in price by 4.6%.
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One of the factors of growth of prices can be a mortgage. Rate of the Central Bank in February, once again reduced. However, the average mortgage rate in Russia remains relatively high, about 9.4% per annum. It is for such a rate buys apartments the majority of clients who do not have benefits and netcapital.
To buyers, financially wealthy, but not yet mortgaged, acquired the motivation to do this, their potential payment should be reduced significantly, by at least 10-15%. To do this, rate on housing loan should be about 7.5%.
This is possible if the Central Bank rate will be reduced from the current 6% to 4%. On the horizon next year, such an event seems unlikely. Consequently, there is no boom in apartment prices we will not see. But the decline in construction volumes on the background of falling margins – bolit than likely.