July 27, entered into force on another, an indefinite ceasefire in the Donbass. Of course, “better a bad peace than a good war”. Anyway, in times of peace the shells don’t come in the house people do not die from bullets and fragments of artillery ammunition women and children. Therefore, in terms of war, sane people want peace. And, of course, the residents of Donbass waiting for the real world as manna from heaven.
That’s only if you talk to people in Donetsk, to read what they write in Dravskem the segment of social networks, we can conclude that on the whole people do not believe that the new truce will lead to a genuine cessation of all hostilities. Why? It’s simple: a sad experience. If a person is deceived by fraud, or robbed by bandits, it is up to the end of days to be wary of again becoming a victim of crime.
Starting in 2014, the Donbas was already more than 20 truce. Perpetual and with different deadlines. They often wore colorful names, for example, “bread” or “school” truce. But they all ended the same way – a new escalation of the conflict. And approximately on the same scenario: or, the Ukrainian military opened fire and seized the territory in a “grey zone”, and then tried to blame the failure of the armistice militia of Donbass. And, of course, the residents of the republics had already developed a collective experience that tells us not to believe in the durability of the truce.
However, a new truce is different from the previous one that established additional mechanisms for monitoring the cease-fire. Under the new agreement, any use of weapons of Ukrainian soldiers may now only on the orders of the high command of the army. The same rule applies to the militia of Donbass to open fire fighters of militia of Donetsk and Lugansk republics will only be on the orders of their higher commanders. You have now created a mechanism for coordination and dialogue between the APU and the host RESPONSE in case of violation of the truce. Also there was a possibility of disciplinary action against the violators of the truce. Now there is a ban on intelligence and sabotage activities.
In theory it all looks nice. If the control mechanisms will really work, then Yes, perhaps the chance for a long-term truce really is. But the main question is, will they work?
The ideas contained in the regulatory right act and how its provisions will apply and interpret in real life is often different things. Especially when we are talking about international instruments, the implementation of which depends entirely on the will of the signatories: they are unable to comply with the provisions of the contract, and may not. And all agreements in the framework of the Minsk process just like that. The question is, if the Ukrainian side did not fulfill its commitments all these years, why is it run now?
Actually if Kiev wanted a real cease-fire, he would have achieved it long ago. Ex-President Petro Poroshenko had several opportunities to end the war. In the summer / fall 2014, winter 2015. But I didn’t. Why? First, most of the representatives of the Ukrainian elite in the years 2014-2016 were confident that will still be able to put the squeeze on Russia in the diplomatic field, and the Donbass in the military, and to include the LDNR Ukraine without the fulfillment of the Minsk agreements. By the way, many in Ukraine believe in it now.
Secondly, the Ukraine and the Donbass are “back yards” of Russia and the EU, and what is happening on these lands hold for Russia and the EU in tension and worsen relations between Brussels and Moscow. It is objectively beneficial to the United States, the management of which is ammunition of the project “Maidan Ukraine”. And, then, Maidana policy will pursue the policy which they represent in Washington. And if the American elite best sluggish war on Donbass, it will continue regardless, as agreed in the framework of the Minsk or Normandy format even.
But why Kiev had agreed to a new truce and a new control system? The fact that Vladimir Zelensky want his political force “servant of the people” (SN) won local elections that will be held in Ukraine in autumn. However, the SN rating is largely based on the popularity of the Zelensky, and it crashes. Therefore, the team Zelensky must again be put on the President, “the crown of peacemaker,” to show that he does everything in his power to stop the bloodshed, and thus to raise the rating of SN.
In principle, Zelensky from the PR point of view, it would be good to get a meeting in the Normandy format before the election. I think this is a task most of his team. Then the Pro-presidential journalists and bloggers will declare it a great victory to SEE. The primary electorate, which can count Zelensky and his party, it is for the most part, proponents of peace in the Donbass.
But even if the truce will hold until the local elections, what next? Now supporters of the “party of war” in Ukraine accused Zelensky betrayal. They demand the continuation of hostilities and the seizure of territories in the “grey zone”, though, and cover all this “care about the army.” The problem is that, as practice shows, the radicals all the time can make Zelensky to do what they want. A vivid example – the Advisory Council, which was to arise in the framework of the Minsk process, but who remained only an idea, as soon as against its creation was made by the radicals. And this nuance of the real Ukrainian politicians along with the above makes of a new long-term truce is extremely doubtful.
Although, who knows, maybe this time fighting won’t be long because Nadia��Yes, the world in conflict should exist, it’s just impossible to live with people who are in the midst of war.