Photo: Jeon Heon-Kyun/EPA-EFE
Moscow, January 31 – “News.Economy.” The global flight from risk in financial markets continues as the identification of individual cases in individual countries, the adoption of new transportation and border restrictions, and the emergence of new forecasts for economic loss due to a virus.
Stock indices of most countries in various regions of the world ended January 2020, the new reduction because of fears of further spread of the coronavirus and negative consequences associated with this phenomenon.
In Asia, South Korea’s KOSPI on Friday, January 31, decreased by 1.35%. Chinese indices Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite fell 0.5% and 2.75%, respectively. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was one of the few indices demonstrated positive dynamics, having managed to grow by 1% by the end of the auction.
the Russian indexes of RTS and Mosberg lost 1% and 1.8% respectively against the background of the identification of the first cases in the country coronavirus.
Germany’s DAX finished trading lower by 1.3%, the French CAC 40 fell 1.1 percent, Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 1.3%. Spain’s IBEX 35 fell 1.2 PCT, Italy’s FTSE MIB fell back by 2.3%.
In the US, major stock indexes also suffered significant losses at the end of Friday’s trading: Dow Jones fell 2.1%, the S&P 500 1.8%, the NASDAQ closed lower by 1.6%.
due to the reduction of appetite for risky game serious decrease in quotations was observed on many commodities. In particular, the stock prices of Brent and WTI in January 2020 fell to levels Aug-Oct 2019 the prices of industrial metals also dipped quite markedly, particularly in January stock prices of Nickel and copper fell by 12% and 9%, respectively.
the Main factor of pressure on cost levels of many assets remains uncertainty about further developments with the new virus. Some experts say that in the short term it could be a shock effect on the demand for different paper, which has a current uncertainty.
In the United States from Goldman Sachs were announced forecast of 0.4% from less rapid growth in GDP in the first quarter of 2020 compared to previous estimates, made before the advent of the new virus.
Many airlines of the world have already announced the cessation or a significant decrease in the number of flights to China. On the termination of flights since February 2020, in connection with the situation around infectious diseases, in particular, declared British Airwaves, American Airlines, Delta Airlines, Finnair, Lion Air, United Airlines and several other carriers.Russia was also suspended flights of all airlines in China, besides “Aeroflot”.
the Total number of cases 2019 coronavirus-nCov, as of January 31, reached nearly 10 thousand While the deaths were recorded only in China. In January, the official number of cases of the new virus has already exceeded the number of cases of atypical pneumonia SARS in 2003, when it was officially announced a little less than 8.5 million cases.
According to some estimates, the real number of cases could be much higher. In particular, on Friday, January 31, the British journal Lancet published a study experts, University of Hong Kong, which did the simulation in the number of cases with given traffic flows in China and the various parameters of virulence of a new disease.
In the baseline simulation, are based on the data about the disease since December 31, 2019 January 28, 2020, noted that the number of cases of 2019 coronavirus-nCov can be 75∎815 people, which is 7.5 times higher than the official statistics.
the Current situation with the sale of the assets on world markets is largely due to the psychological effect of the distributioninjured new virus.
the Number of deaths from regular flu in the world and individual countries, in particular, far exceeds the number of deaths from the SARS virus. The outbreak of new viral infectious diseases however, are accompanied by increased attention from the authorities, the medical expert community, media and other observers.
due to a combination of factors in the form of restriction of transportation (within countries and cross-border migration), and an expected decline in consumer spending and General negative psychological background, fueled by fears of the spread of the new virus, economic and financial losses from the less common and less deadly, but more exotic viral infectious diseases are much higher than against the seasonal epidemics of influenza and other respiratory diseases.
With continued detection of new cases of the disease both in China and in other countries, as well as considering new measures to limit transport of the PRC, which are taken by authorities of different States, the negative sentiment in the stock markets are likely to persist.
Many countries and private companies also, it may have to revise the previous forecasts for economic growth and financial indicators in the first quarter of 2020 because of the uncertainty and limitations associated with 2019-nCov. Text: News.Economy