According to the estimates of McKinsey & Co, global GDP annually loses 15% of its volume due to premature mortality and morbidity of the population of different countries. By 2040, these losses can be reduced by half at the expense of already known measures, improving the environment, the spread of healthy lifestyles and preventive medicine. Reducing harm from known diseases can also reduce losses from possible new pathogens, such continuing coronavirus pandemic.Only due to early morbidity and mortality of the population of the world’s GDP annually loses about 15%, which significantly exceeds the possible losses of the global economy from the pandemic of coronavirus. To such conclusion experts of consulting company McKinsey, which today submitted its report about the future of health development in different countries.From various injuries killed 4.5 million people, 80% of whom are near retirement age, and 1 billion suffering from mental disorders. Together premature mortality leads to annual losses of 43 days of life for each inhabitant of the Earth, and the presence of chronic diseases reduce the productivity of their holders by an average of 5%. In 2017, which is the study design year, this resulted in losses of $12 trillion, which is comparable to the Chinese economy. At the same time, a possible decline in world GDP this year because of the pandemic coronavirus can only be between 3% to 8%.70% reduction of losses, measured in years of life, perhaps through improved living conditions, including environmental conditions, the efficient distribution of health behaviors and increase access to vaccination and other elements of preventive medicine. On the contrary, the contribution of high-tech and expensive treatments can identify only about a third of the desired result. As a result, by 2040, many countries could reduce infant mortality by 65% and increase healthy life expectancy at least 10 years, allowing the 65-year-old man feel at the age of 55. The cumulative number of lives saved would be increased to 230 million, which in turn would lead to growth in the working age population and a GDP growth rate of 8%.”In addition to the current measures of potential innovation in the form of new medications, procedures, medical equipment, technologies and service models will be an important factor in improving the health of the world population. Our study shows that, with such impressive innovations, the disease burden could decline a further 6-10%,”— said a senior partner at McKinsey and head of the international expert group on pharmaceuticals and medical products Martin Dewhurst. At the same time, as noted by Kathryn Linder, partner, McKinsey and one of the main co-authors report��, although the current health system has a huge potential of improvement, realize it will be a daunting task, requiring a fundamental change that goes far beyond what is usually meant by health.Most heavily, as shown in the treatment of coronavirus, the disease was asymptomatic in patients with existing chronic diseases. Therefore, the reduction in the number of those, or at least reduce the growth in their numbers could reduce the harm the other infectious diseases.Anastasia Manuylova
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