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Taking advantage of the instability in the global energy market, Belarus is again trying to bring down prices for Russian gas. Minsk has refused the claim “Gazprom” to repay a debt for previous deliveries of raw materials, and the President of the Republic Alexander Lukas said that the cost of “blue fuel” for his country should be reduced to two or even three times. Experts believe that the disputed parts of the gas supply, as always, will be resolved during private talks of presidents of Russia and Belarus. It is possible that even in the financial crisis, Moscow has again to make concessions to Minsk in order to maintain political ally on the border with Western Europe. However, after Minsk, in line for the discounts may soon become not only the representatives of the CIS and countries of Western Europe.

According to the head of “Gazprom” Alexey Miller, the debt of Belarus to the Russian side for gas supplies in past years exceeding $165 million Without resolving differences of this debt, “Gazprom” will not negotiate on further export of “blue fuel” in the Federal Republic, warned Miller. Belarus position is the opposite: Minsk claims that the differences in the payment and extend the contract on gas purchases are more technical, not fundamental. In particular, relate to the “question-calorie” or “specific energy” of raw materials. Similar nuances were not previously satisfactory but now Belarus is confident that the hydrocarbons of our country in terms of quality inferior to the energy of competitors: hence, Russia to continue trade relations have to provide the discount.

However, Lukashenka does not hide the main cause of non-payment of the debt and the extension of Russian fuel supplies. According to him, Belarus buys gas from Russia at $127 per thousand cubic meters, and in Europe, particularly in Germany, against the background of demand reduction because of the epidemic of the coronavirus, the quotations of “blue fuel” has already fallen below $80. “In the current environment, the price of Russian gas for the Republic should be $40-45, and, given the logistics,” – says Lukashenko. The Belarusian President does not exclude that Russian gas will always be possible to find an alternative and completely abandon the purchase of raw materials from Moscow.

With this statement strongly disagree Russian specialists. According to the Deputy head of the national energy security Fund Alexei Grivach, Russia is the only supplier of “blue fuel” to Belarus, which annually buys about 18-20 billion cubic meters of Russian gas. Prices usually provided Belarus, our country was among the lowest in the international market. Currently, however, the world price of gas has plummeted in the end of may, in the course of trading on European markets in a few cases it even fell to zero.

“Minsk can adjust the supply of gas from Europe. In the Old world there is a surplus of energy, so buy the excess fuel in the European market for reverse drive circuits will not be difficult. However, most likely, purchased fuel will still be of Russian origin and it is unlikely that European traders will go Belarus on price concessions. Energy from Europe in any case will be more expensive at $10-15 per thousand cubic meters, than direct from Russia”, — said the expert. He did not exclude that the pressure on Moscow, which is now in the global gas arena is under severe pressure, Belarus will use not only economic but also political techniques. One example is when Minsk compares the price of Russian gas for itself and for Germany, and then concludes that for Belarus, “who fought against Nazism,” fuel is more expensive than for the Germans.

At the same time, experts admit that the demand and prices of “blue fuel” in Europe, are at the minimum levels, and they will rise before the end of the year. Besides, Poland has won the “Gazprom” lawsuits for $1.5 billion and stopped the supply of “blue fuel” of our country along the route “Yamal-Europe”. All this creates for “Gazprom” extremely disadvantageous negotiating position.

Not coincidentally, the Russian companies have already filed claims for lower prices Bulgaria, Turkey and Georgia. Following the results of negotiations of prices under a number of contracts was reduced by 15-40%. Recently, in the framework of the EAEU with the request to lower gas prices to Russia turned Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. “”Gazprom” once the conflict with Belarus will likely have to make concessions. Perhaps, on the annual discount it will not go, but the previous debt, which can be the subject of perennial dispute, will be voided. Thus, Minsk allegedly “pay” the political support of Moscow”, — predicts analyst CC “Finam” Anton Drozdov.