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Gazprom returned to Poland $1.5 billion – the amount of the overpayment for gas supplied earlier, according to the decision of the Stockholm arbitration. The European court decided that the price for Russian “blue fuel” in the contract is high and does not correspond to the real state of the market. In accordance with the decision of the court, then the Polish state company PGNiG will pay to Gazprom for the fuel formula, “which is directly linked to gas prices on the West European market”.

How sensitive blow to Russian energy interests is the judicial defeat of Gazprom in its confrontation with the Warsaw, we learned from the experts.

the Polish side has confirmed that the money from Russia, awarded by the Stockholm arbitration, the full amount received. “Pleased to inform that received confirmation that money from “Gazprom export” are already on our account,” wrote on 1 July, the head of PGNiG Jerzy Kwiecinski in his Twitter account.

the Russian gas concern, for its part, noted that, following the decision of the court, will continue to lag behind their case by legal means. “Of PJSC “Gazprom” and OOO “Gazprom export” to continue the appeal in the prescribed manner that the arbitral Tribunal’s decision. The transfer of funds not result in prejudice to the position of PJSC “Gazprom” and OOO “Gazprom export” in the course of the appeal”, – reads the statement of the Russian company.

Recall that PGNiG initiated an arbitration against Gazprom and its export subsidiary in 2015, with a requirement to revise the price of natural gas supplied to Poland under the contract of September 25, 1996. He was for the supply of 10 billion cubic meters of gas per year for the period up to 2022.

the Russian company for a long time refused to change the price, and eventually supplied from Yamal gas was much more expensive than fuel on European markets. PGNiG was waiting for the Russian partner reduce the cost to the market, but Gazprom had interpreted the award differently. According to his version, in reducing gas prices, the Warsaw court refused, recognizing her potential right to claim discount.

March 30, 2020, the Stockholm arbitration court took the decision to adjust the price formula in the contract for the supply of gas to Poland through the pipeline “Yamal-Europe” retroactive (that is, retroactively) on 1 November 2014. PGNiG and “Gazprom export” in June signed an Addendum to the contract for the supply of gas through the pipeline “Yamal-Europe” of 1996, having agreed the term of payment of the retroactive payment to July 1, 2020.

At the same time Russian exporters of gas, may 29, appealed to the court of the Swedish County of Svea final decision of the arbitral Tribunal. In response, the representatives of the Polish state-owned company stated that the appeal concerned only the procedural aspects of the dispute, but can not change the earlier decision on the merits.

Note that Poland consumes about 15 billion cubic meters of gas per year. A third of the quantity it produces independently in their territory, and the rest imports. The main supplier of gas to Poland – the Russian “Gazprom” on the basis of a long-term contract which Warsaw can annually purchase between 8.7 and 10.2 billion cubic meters of gas.

Polish Authorities have long said that the country seeks to find a replacement for the gas supplies from Russia until 2022, when expire long-term contracts with Gazprom. Among the possible alternatives – increase in volumes of purchase by Poland of liquefied natural gas that comes from Qatar and the United States. Another option is the construction of a gas pipeline, Baltic Pipe, which would connect Poland with the Norwegian shelf through Denmark.

However, while all of these options – only projects, and gas Poland needs constantly, and very real, not hypothetical. So, as they say, payment by payment, the courts, the courts, and gas history of Russia and Poland in fact is continuing, says a leading expert of the national energy security Fund Igor Yushkov. According to him, in judicial proceedings between Gazprom and Poland there is nothing unique. “Almost all clients “Gazprom” from time to time apply to the court for revision of gas prices, and Poland was just one of the last. “Gazprom” in this case usually pays the so-called retroactive payments.” – the expert specifies.

he suggested that the parties initially considered the option of raising transit rates. For the transit of PGNiG received a “ridiculous” amount — around $40 million a year. “I think Gazprom has proposed a comprehensive agreement: we will not pay you $1.5 billion, but signed a new transit agreement, and you will receive the $1.5 billion as part of it. But for Poland it was important to show his victory over “Gazprom” and to receive “live” money,” – says Yushkov.

however, he doubts that the Russian gas price for Poland in the future will again be revised. “The contract says that the appeal for revision once in three years. The court’s decision was handed down recently in 2019. In 2022, PGNiG’s contract ends. Most likely, they will not have time to address. Anyway, soon it will definitely not be”, – said the interlocutor of “MK”.

the result of the decision of the Stockholm arbitration, Russia will lose money, but can win in the moral terms of image, said the Deputy head of IAC “Alpari” Natalia Milchakova. According to her, defending their interests in the European courts and strictly implementing their decisions taken even not in his favor, Gazprom has demonstrated its commitment to law and civilized method of resolving economic SPOditch. What clearly attracts and existing and potential partners.

in addition, “Gazprom” breaks the unpleasant myths about themselves. First – he’s busy energy blackmail “Europe”: it is unlikely that the blackmailer will seek the truth in court. Second – that the alleged “Gazprom” supplies gas to its consumers on market conditions and distributes right and left discounts in order to secure the loyalty of European consumers.

as for energy relations with Poland, then, according to Milchakova, “even if Warsaw will completely refuse from Russian gas, which is unlikely, will always be willing to buy more gas from Russia.” As such, according to the expert, Hungary, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and, in the end, Germany and Austria – partner “Gazprom” on the “Nord stream-2”.

finally, the question remains: how serious is the financial impact is applied according to “Gazprom” payments of $1.5 million? In most companies claim that their pre-reserved in the budget for this year.

“Payments can have a negative impact on net profit and profitability of “Gazprom”, but by the end of 2020 the entire global energy sector will show weak results. And as the recovery in the growth of prices for oil and gas, these short-term losses “Gazprom” can be tolerated”, says Milchakova.