Consulting company Boston Consulting Group (BCG) predicted the impacts of the pandemic coronavirus COVID-19 for the world and Russian labor market. Experts fear that the mismatch between demand and supply of skills will increase the loss of global GDP to 11%, and in Russia — up to 1.8%.What will happen to the market rudisleben BCG Global Skills Mismatch 2020 is devoted to the mismatch of skills of staff the offer on the labour market — at the level of organization, industry or region. The consulting company noted that the world is faced with a qualification pit before the pandemic COVID-19. The epidemic will aggravate this situation: loss of performance due to the mismatch between demand and supply of skills can increase from 6% to 11%. Loss of GDP on a global scale will amount by 2025 to $18 trillion.Overall, in 2020, about 1.9 billion people (more than half of the labor resources of the world) can be affected by “labor shock” — that is, may lose their job or switch to part-time employment. According to the International labour organization of the UN, the loss of labor income will reach $3.4 trillion. In the next two to three months work with a high probability will lose one-sixth in the world. The unemployment rate exceeds 17%.For Russia, the economists outline four possible scenarios of the situation In case of most favorable scenario, “bounce”, the unemployment rate in Russia may grow with the pre-crisis 4.6% to 6-7%. Under the baseline scenario and pull — up to 8-10%. And to 12-15%, with an increase in the number of unemployed at 7.8 million in absolute terms, if the crisis will go according to the script of “critical recession”.Which industries will suffer and izmenyatsya: Anatoly Zhdanov, Commerciallyoriented of the crisis will vary greatly by industry. Over 80% of all layoffs in the world are likely to take place in the sphere of non-food retail, manufacturing, hotel and restaurant business, tourism and construction.Only in this scenario can suffer such industries as agriculture, telecommunications, oil and gas, metals and mining, transport and logistics, financial sector, here the reduction will amount to 4-6%.The scenario of “push-pull” suggests Russia is more moderate abbreviations: 11-16% in the services sector, 7-10% in trade, and 6-10% in real estate and 5-10% in the industry. In this budget sector and utilities, according to BCG, will not be affected by the significant increase of unemployment in any scenario.Although the government actively respond to the crisis, their attention is primarily addressed to mitigate the shock through first aid and the redistribution of employment, experts say. There is a temporary transfer of unemployed workers, mostly from the private sector on roles in the field of socially significant works, such as ��Zdravoohranenie and social services.However, in addition to measures of the authorities a certain redistribution of jobs was due to the market. In March, the United States was marked by the growth of demand for manpower in such industries and professions as grocery retailing, shipping of goods, transport services, drivers, packaging.BCG expects the level of unemployment in the world will return to equilibrium by the end of 2020. However, the pandemic has already started the process long-term structural changes — from flexible and remote working schemes to accelerate automation. And these changes will affect up to 1.5 billion jobs in the next decade.By 2030, automation would be risking 12% of existing jobs. About 30% of jobs will require people with completely new skills.The pandemic has radically changed working schedule. “Now, when 81% of the global work force involved in one way or another in the “experiment” to work from home, flexible hours and remote working are highly likely to become the new norm,” the study says BCG.According to the research company Gartner, after the crisis, approximately 75% of organizations around the world plan to transfer at least 5% of employees who previously worked in offices for remote work on a permanent basis. At the same time, the BCG analysis suggests that more than 10% of all workers with a high probability they will work for remote schemes, and for office workers, this share could reach 30%.Sudden need to remove the work online has launched a wave of mass development of digital skills, creating professionals in various areas of new career opportunities and increase income levels. In Britain, for example, according to Burning Glass Technologies, wage rates for jobs requiring digital skills, 29% higher than those where such skills are required.Change is likely, and the organization of work. The first signs of this process were visible to the epidemic. In the United States, according to the Gallup report for the 2018, 36% of workers were employed in the so-called higenamine — i.e. on the market of short-term contracts or freelancing. According to the joint report of the freelancers Union in the USA and exchange Upwork, the number of such workers by 2027 could grow 1.5 times.BCG predicts that “at the same time the focus of attention in the digital transformation of the labour market will shift from procedures to results.” As the simplification of labor relations and automation of the Contracting process the need in a variety of positions, for example, among the administrative staff, will disappear, experts say.What can cause Crisostomo: Marcio Jose Sanchez / Aratory study believe that to minimize the negative processes in the labour market authorities in the next three to six monthsObamacare will exert “maximum efforts to provide first aid for workers — subsidies to wages and enhanced social protection to financial and tax cuts and the temporary redistribution of employment.”In the medium term (on the horizon from six months to a year) will require manual balancing of the labour market in order unemployment to a minimum. These measures include a safety net for piece-rate workers, training and flexible redeployment of the workforce. In addition, you must provide the entire population access to the opportunities of continuous learning throughout life, which should create the workers have the necessary motivation and give them the opportunity to continuously develop professionally.”In fact, it has presented an annual “tax” on the world economy at 6%,” say the authors of the study. Now COVID-19 skills gap could cost 11% from the performance point of view, or $18 trillion in foregone GDP by 2025, the study said.Eugene Tail
