Forecast: clear ruble – its peak coronavirus will be held in February

Moscow, February 3 – “News.The economy” against the backdrop of recent reports of detection of cases of a new type of coronavirus in Russia already and economic commentators started to compare the risks of various infections. While epidemiologists assumed that the peak of the current epidemic can be completed in February.

Dissemination prosypayutsya played as political scientists and conflict resolution specialists, for example, now other economic analysts also puzzled epidemiological issues, identifying prospects for the relief of the novel coronavirus. On 31 January the total number of cases reached almost 10 thousand people, with 213 dead (on the eve reported 7711 infected and 170 died) In these conditions, the Russian currency, a week ago seen below $ 62 rubles/$, if oil above $62 a barrel, went over the bar 63 rubles/$.. And Friday 14:47 GMT was recorded on the Moscow stock exchange together with the dollar calculations “tomorrow” at the level 63,4375 RUB/$ at the price of oil Brent $58,41 per barrel versus the same indicators of 61.8 RUB/$ and $61,43 a week earlier.

Macroeconomic results of the week Alexey Bobrovsky brings together experts Kireevskiy Alexander and Oleg Bogdanov in the “right direction” on the YouTube channel.

At present, said the chief of the division of banks and the money market “IK VELES Capital” Yuri Kravchenko, the ruble is under pressure both because of the General flight of investors from risk, and due to the decline in oil prices. Both processes due to the threat of further spread of the virus, particularly given its negative impact on the growth rate of the Chinese and world economy. As a result, declining along with other EM currencies, the ruble is feeling worse main ∎colleagues∎ in emerging markets – due to the falling oil prices. If the pressure continues, we can expect further strengtheningtion of the dollar in the range of 64-65 RUB, said Kravchenko, laying the mentioned levels for the next week.

it is Obvious that in the current situation, the weakness of the ruble was the result of much sunken oil, confirmed the independent expert Vladimir rojankovsky. And further determined: ∎ as soon As oil returns to its long-term stable trading range of $60-70 per barrel, we will see a simultaneous strengthening of the Russian currency in the area of 61,50-61,30 RUB/$∎. Despite the fact that the bonds OFZ and today are very successful: at auction January 29, has sold securities 23.5 billion at a record low yield at cut-off price at the level of 6.06%, noticed rojankovsky.

Recall that according to specified data, on Wednesday the Ministry of Finance placed at auction Federal loan bonds (OFZ) with a fixed coupon yield series 26∎226 maturing in October 2026 in the amount 23,413 billion rubles, with demand 72,331 billion and the average yield of 6.06% per annum and series 24021 OFZ maturing in April 2024 in the amount of 35,094 billion rubles, with demand 171,603 billion

∎And, in fact, continuous stay of Brent crude below $60 per barrel – a thing quite unusual. As I have repeatedly pointed out, at such a low oil Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit∎, – said Vladimir rozhankovsky. And it should be borne in mind that, along with Israel, the Saudis are the main US allies in the middle East. This is important in zastabilizirovalsia the situation around Iran after the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani in early January. So trump is unlikely to quarrel with Riyadh because of oil prices, said the expert.

meanwhile, on the eve of the world health organization has declared a state of emergency in connection with the epidemic of the coronavirus. And on Friday, the head of the operational headquarters for the fight against the disease, Deputy Prime Minister Tatiana Golikova told reporters about the detection of the first two infected people in Russia. Service CPS has identified two overnew a history of infection of the coronavirus in Zabaykalsky Krai and Tyumen region. They are isolated, are supervised and receive all the necessary assistance, has explained Golikova.

As the outbreak of SARS (SARS) in 2003, when the number of cases amounted to 8096 people and the current epidemic of coronavirus obuslovlen viruses of the same family, but while in the present case is much lower than the death rate, said the Director for analysis of financial markets and macroeconomics UK ∎Alfa Capital∎ Vladimir Bragin. In addition, identified it, the good news is a slowdown in the number of new detected cases exponentially. And if the spread of the virus will be able to at least seriously slow down in the coming days, the consequences for the world economy may be limited: in the form of a temporary drawdown of GDP in China and local problems in other countries, in particular related to the delay in the supply of products from China. In this case, the current market correction, investors quickly enough ∎buys∎. A more stringent scenario where the situation is not quickly stabiliziruemost or, even worse, out of control, fraught with quite different implications for the markets and the economy. But judging by the dynamics of the stock market, while the probability of serious problems on a global scale investors assessed as low, said Bragin.

to Predict when an epidemic of coronavirus can go on the decline, of course, impossible, both because of the lack of necessary information, and due to difficult to predict natural factors, said ∎Lead. Economics∎ Advisor to the Director on scientific work of the Central research Institute of epidemiology of Rospotrebnadzor, academician Victor Maleev. But yet. judging by the dynamics, he added, it is impossible to agree with what is already visible slowdown in the number of cases. Obviously, the peak of the epidemic has not yet passed, as determined by the who’s decision to declare an emergency. Together however, given the ongoing security measures, it is possible to assume that the peak of the epidemic can be overcome during February. And probably 2-3 months will need to develop a vaccine.

At the same time, stipulated Maleev, threat ∎the second wave∎ involving the spread of infection, in General, in the world today, based on the total number of cases in other countries (about 100 people), seems not so relevant. However, until complete victory over the coronavirus, to abandon the protective measures against its further spread, of course, should not, even if as a consequence also affects the economy, said the Advisor to the Director, Central research Institute of epidemiology of Rospotrebnadzor.

the Cases of infection with coronavirus in 2019

Threats rasprostranennoe, in the future investors will gradually lose interest in news that is associated with the virus, and panic will be reduced, said Yuri Kravchenko. However, according to him, a new impetus to the sales of assets can serve, for example, messages about the further spread of coronavirus or deaths in European countries and USA etc.

anyway, during the coming February, obviously, it will, on some more or less stringent scenario will continue to unfold. And yet amid disputes updated on the readiness of the Russian side to ensure that to prevent the spread of infection in the country, today less attention is given to even such ∎a win-win∎ topics as the possible reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at the meeting of 7 Feb or clarification of the powers and programs of the new government. However, given the overall uncertainty, aggravated by the coronavirus, some experts have suggested that the regulator intends to refrain from rate changes. Others of their colleagues, aslavsis the value of the currency options, did not rule out movement of the strap down by 25bps.p. to 6%.

Monday after a long break, started working in the Chinese stock market in Shanghai and Shenzhen. Holidays associated with the holiday of Spring, the authorities extended to contain the spread of coronavirus. Bidding on sites started in the “red” zone.

while Vladimir rojankovski sees no reason why the Central Bank once again decided to lower the key rate. ∎First, at the last meeting, the Federal reserve maintained a neutral monetary policy (and the rate this time, not lowered), and we, like it or not, look to external factors. Second, in the winter months, inflation is unlikely to have continued to decline. Most likely in January will be a small increase, compared with December, and it will be an additional argument against the reduction of the rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation∎ – elaborated on an independent expert.

regardless of the rate decision, the upcoming meeting of the Central Bank is not expected to have a significant impact on the exchange rate, defined Yury Kravchenko. And the change of government, according to him, has also been fully priced in by the market participants. Among the fundamental factors are the seasonal strong balance of payments in the first quarter. However, in the case of a further decline in oil prices this factor does not support the ruble, warned Kravchenko.

the spread of the coronavirus has made changes in the agenda of the Russian investment forum, which was scheduled for February. Apparently, Sochi will host the later, when the threat of infection will subside.

with regard to the appointment of a new government and the impact of this factor on the dynamics of the exchange rate of the ruble, still the market is neutral enough to respond to such changes, having survived the main shock on January 15, when the government of Dmitry Medvedev unexpectedly resigned, said Vladimir rozhankovsky. According to him, the first results of the new study will appear not earlier than in six months. And while the market will be in the standby state, when specific personnel cannot give rise to unambiguous judgment. In the end, people do not evaluate the names and biographies, but by their real deeds, and rightly so, the analyst concluded.

it is Noteworthy that the latest news on coronavirus overshadowed the foreign policy context, which, incidentally, was marked by the completion of a landmark processes, like a planned withdrawal of Britain from the EU on 31 January and made the same day of a possible end to the impeachment of U.S. President Donald trump. Despite the fact that London, and Trump, in fact, until the end of the year is still a transitional period, which for the first aims to finalize ∎the divorce process∎ and the second, on the contrary, to provide the Union with voters during the presidential campaign.

However, said Yuriy Kravchenko, political events in the form of a British exit from the EU or the impeachment of the American President is clearly not conducive to risk appetite. And this, in particular, is a negative factor for the ruble and other EM currencies. ∎Overall, however, such events have a negative impact only occasionally. And investors have already developed a certain immunity to such pressure∎ – said the head of the division of banks and the money market “IK VELES Capital”.

Natalia Prihodko Text: News.Economy