The war in Ukraine is also a race against time. While Ukraine is dependent on arms deliveries from the West, understanding of the sanctions against Russia is increasingly falling in Western countries. So does Ukraine need to evict Russia from its own territory before the West caves in on high prices?
According to Russia expert Fiona Hill, this is a portrayal of the situation that Moscow should like. In an interview with Foreign Policy, the former Russia adviser to US Presidents Trump, Obama and Bush warns against the Putin bluff: “The fact that we have presented it that way in most analyzes hides the fact that we too Putin is running out of time.”
According to Hill, there is the “magic date 2024” when elections are due in Russia. Putin does not run the risk of not being re-elected – thanks to the Russian propaganda machine and questionable elections. But, says Hill, “He’s afraid of a repeat of what happened when he returned to the presidency in 2011 and 2012.” At the time, there were protests in many Russian cities. “Putin knows that beneath the surface there is a great deal of dissatisfaction.”
At the beginning of next year, the consequences of the sanctions in Russia will be felt particularly hard. “The biggest demonstrations in Putin’s long term have always been about economic problems,” Hill told Foreign Policy. “In Moscow and St. Petersburg, Putin is not that popular. If you look deeply into the polls, it’s a bit like Donald Trump. People would like an alternative.”
According to Hill, dissatisfaction with the president is also growing in Putin’s immediate environment. “There are people around Putin who believe that allowing himself two more terms was unfair. The plan was actually that he resigns in 2024. And the weaker Putin looks, the less he looks like a legitimate ruler, and the more reasons there are for those close to him to nominate a successor.”
Hill’s summary: “Putin wants this conflict to be over. He wants us to feel like those who are running out of time – and his clock is ticking too.”
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