Factor Sechin: it can help Lukashenka, but it can hurt to hit (UDF, Belarus)

What can help Sechin

Since the Minsk and Moscow failed to agree on the price of oil supplies for the current year, raw materials to Belarusian refineries is delivered to the company Mikhail Gutseriev, close to Lukashenka oligarch. Meanwhile the largest supplier in Belarus for many years was Rosneft, which accounted for half of all the Russian volumes.

At the recent talks in Sochi on 7 February, Vladimir Putin proposed to Alexander Lukashenko to negotiate directly with suppliers, which official Minsk does not want to pay the so-called prize. It is logical that the head of Belarus has started negotiations with Sechin, head of the largest supplier. If he would be willing to give up compensation, it is likely that his example would be followed by other companies.

Why Sechin can make concessions

first, it is unlikely that Rosneft will be able to quickly find a new buyer for 10-12 million tons of oil, which the company annually supplied to Belarus.

second, in the present state of Affairs Rosneft strikes on their own assets. The fact that 42% of shares of Mozyr oil refinery is owned Slavneft owned Rosneft and Gazprom Neft. Have an unusual situation, the company supplies raw materials to the controlled company.

Once for these reasons Sechin have greatly helped Lukashenko. In 2013, after the scandal with the arrest in Belarus General Director of Uralkali Vladislav Baumgertner officials from the government of Dmitry Medvedev gave to understand that the volumes of oil supplies to our country will be reduced.

against this background, close to Vladimir Putin, the head of Rosneft went against the line of the government. Sechin addressed to the operator Transneft with a request to reduce the volume of deliveries to the Mozyr oil refinery, and sa few months twice flew to Minsk for talks with Lukashenko.

the Struggle between different groups inside the Russian authorities have played into the hands of the head of Belarus. There went back on their word, knowing that Rosneft is ready to become the only exporter of oil in our country.

Why Sechin may ignore the request Lukashenko

But it was in the history of relations between the two heavyweights and the period in which Sechin had a drink at the leader of Belarus, a lot of blood. During four years in office, when Putin was appointed Prime Minister, his old friend Vice-the Prime Minister and was responsible for the new policy in respect of energy supplies to Belarus.

In 2010, only a portion of oil in our country to supply duty-free (for domestic consumption). Sechin said: “We must act within the legal framework. But the legal field does not allow us to cancel export duties on oil and oil products. There is no reason to cancel”.

in addition, Sechin rigidly demanded payment of the debt for gas: “I think that they will pay. This does not happen to the contract is adhered to only one side”.

the Contextthe Zero mark of the oil pipeline "Friendship"BelTA: Lukashenko threatened to take away transit нефтьБЕЛТА14.02.2020 Belaruskaya Prauda: “hybrid war” of Russia against Belarus 3Беларуская праўда13.02.Bn 2020: the West attended to the sovereignty Belorussiabelorussia новости12.02.2020 to return to the old conditions in 2011, Lukashenko agreed to sign a package of documents on creation of Uniform economic space. In the same period, the head of Belarus failed to make Russia’s consent to supply gas at Russian domestic prices for the sale of Beltransgaz. CErank first even stated that Moscow a controlling stake is not necessary. Then he paid $ 2.5 billion.

Now Lukashenko periodically remembers that he promised for the sale of Beltransgaz domestic gas prices, but in fact, Sechin did not say that.

There are several reasons to doubt that this time the Manager will make concessions. First, Rosneft more than six months refuses to supply, showing integrity and demanding payment of the award. Second, reports about the positive outcome of the talks, the press service of Lukashenka and did not speak. Thirdly, Sechin — not a businessman, and a guide to the will of Putin. If the Russian President was willing to make concessions, the head of Rosneft would long ago have resumed supplies to Belarus on the terms of the Minsk.

But, apparently, without the approval of Putin Lukashenko to negotiate with the vendors will fail.

the new York times contain estimates of the solely foreign media and do not reflect the views of the editorial Board of the new York times.