the Key export agricultural products – agricultural raw materials, fish and seafood, oils and oilseeds agriculture, shows good dynamics, exports of poultry meat and pork, says the head of the Center for economic forecasting of Gazprombank Darya Snitko. In March, the Russian companies have increased their exports in monetary terms by almost a third, to $ 2.2 billion (the same period last year), follows from the data of the FCS. While the three leaders – wheat (plus 245 million dollars), sunflower (plus 114 million dollars.) sunflower oil (plus 88 million dollars). According to the Centre for industry expertise Rosselkhozbank, in 2020 the export of agricultural products will exceed the target (25 billion dollars). This contributes to the weakening of the ruble, and measures of state support of agriculture. In addition, to increase Russia’s presence in the global market will help the gap that existed before the global supply chain – our country located to the markets of the Far and Middle East and Central Asia is closer than most other food exporters. Director of the Institute of agrarian studies Eugenia Serova calls “a miracle” the recent launch of export of poultry, pork and even beef. “A country that has never produced beef cattle, suddenly began to export beef. It is like Vietnam never produced coffee, suddenly became the second exporter of this product,” says the expert.
According to the Russian grain Union (RGU), theoretically Russia can grow up to 200 million tons of grain – if it is effective demand. Of them you can export up to 100 million tons, estimates the Vice-perzident of the Russian grain Union Alexander Korbut. But if we “sumahama” in this volume, it is necessary to realize that grain prices will fall seriously and will not earn as much as with the current volumes.
Exaggerate the potential of the Russian AgroExport not worth it, said Daria Snitko. According to the Center for economic forecasting of Gazprombank, the export of goods in the current year can not fall, because world trade will decline by 6-7% at least. “In these circumstances, export growth, including agricultural, will be a success” – said Snitko. Perhaps, the share of grain will rise in total export revenue, a big jump but do not need to wait, said Eugenia Serova. In the last couple of years agroeksport was about 24 billion dollars. While exports of energy – 290 billion. And even a collapse in prices and volume this year reduced the rate to 130-150 billion., five times more AgroExport. Grain exports in 2019 amounted to less than $ 8 billion. “Therefore, it is unlikely that the grain can become a commodity number one,” sums up Daria Snitko.
“We should not rely on any other raw needle”, – said a member of the agricultural Committee of the state Duma Arkady Ponomarev. The future derived from grain with more high added value, he said. Crisis 2020 demonstrated how sudden rupture of the production and logistics links can cause unexplained shortage of goods in one country and a glut in another region of the world, says Daria Snitko. For example, in February Australia are unable to deliver avocado to the traditional market of China, Spain is not completely removed and not sold strawberries, gives examples of the expert. But further consequences of the pandemic may be much worse. According to forecasts of the world food programme (WFP), the regime of self-isolation and economic recession triggered by the COVID-19 can lead to famine “of biblical proportions” if the mankind will not ensure food security. According to the WFP, before the end of 2020 with a severe food shortage in the world may face 265 million people – twice more than last year.
However, our country, the problem of food security is not threatened. At the most key positions of domestic demand is provided by domestic production either completely or almost completely. Thus, the share of Russian products in the total resources of the internal market by the end of 2019 grains exceeded 99%, sugar and potatoes – 95%, meat and meat products – 90%.
Agriculture is one of the few industries that the pandemic has not touched directly, recognizes Arkady Ponomarev. In all areas of agribusiness in Russia there is a growth. And this season we have also formed a favorable prognosis in terms of gross harvest of grain, oilseeds. Increased acreage under buckwheat, rice, corn, oats, vegetables and potatoes. “To thwart these plans will, I think, only superpotencia circumstances. Therefore, the relative volumes of domestically produced and imported products to the population not to worry”, – said the Deputy.
agree With him and Eugenia Serova. However, it notes that the country’s food security, besides food availability, there are two characteristics – affordability (the ability of the population to purchase this food), as well as the safety and quality of food. In this sense, we may have problems due to the reduction of income for the majority of the population.
In this situation there is nothing more effective than programme food aid to the poor and procurement for state needs, not invented, I’m sure Arkady Ponomarev. We will remind, the program of ration cards was proposed in 2015, but was never implemented due to the lack of funds in the budget. In April, heads of industry associations urged the Russian authorities to return to this idea. According to experts, to card in the amount of 10 thousand rubles per month could floor��it 10 million Russians, before year-end will require 800 billion rubles.
