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the Head of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev made an important statement in connection with the military escalation on the border with Armenia. Sunday the two sides exchanged blows there, which led to a mutual loss. Although clashes occur away from the unrecognized Karabakh, President Ilham Aliyev remembered about it. According to him, the self-proclaimed Pro-Armenian Republic should be liquidated, and the territory needs to go back under the rule of Baku. “MK” asked the experts to assess the prospects of the war between the Transcaucasian countries.

the Azerbaijani leader called pointless negotiations on conflict settlement in Nagorno-Karabakh, which for decades carried out with the participation of mediators. He called for the restoration of the territorial integrity of the country.

the war between the two former Soviet States in 1993-1994, Azerbaijan lost control over part of it Nagorno-Karabakh, and also lost seven surrounding districts.

the Latest military escalation in Karabakh took place in April 2016. Then Yerevan acknowledged the deaths of 90 soldiers. The loss of the Azerbaijani army made up of about 300 people, including killed the brigade commander special forces.

According to independent military expert Yuri Lyamin, Azerbaijan “has a serious advantage over Armenian forces, as the total number of troops, weapons and military equipment, and the number of the most modern weapons”.

-Azerbaijan due to oil revenues over the past decade and a half has conducted a serious modernization of the armed forces, the expert said. – However, we must not forget that in the event of a major war, the Azerbaijani side will need to attack and break a well-fortified line of defense built by the Armenian side.

At the same time, according to the expert, Armenia has also learned some lessons from unsuccessful battles in April 2016.

In recent years, due to the Russian loans and own funds of Armenia also was able to purchase a number of modern samples of arms and military equipment, let the volume of purchases was much less Azerbaijan, said Yuri Lyamin.

In turn, Deputy Director of the Center for analysis of strategies and technologies (cast) Konstantin Makienko noted that “in the military-technical and quantitatively against Azerbaijan has serious, if not overwhelming majority”.

-they Have more army. She’s better equipped. In times of high oil prices, Azerbaijan has bought a large quantity of weapons from Turkey, Israel, Russia, – said Konstantin Makienko. Armenia in this sense is very Malorechensky country. But she is also caught up in terms of modernization of its armed forces after a four-day war in April 2016. They and new air defense systems appeared, and the aircraft su-30CM.

Besides, it is believed (although this may confirm only a direct armed conflict) that the Armenian army is more organized and more motivated. Roughly speaking, as the weaker side of the conflict, the Armenian army is in a more desperate position, and therefore ready for more action,

Very vaguely, this situation resembles the situation of Israel in 1967. The Israeli army then it is very much inferior (at least quantitatively) the armies of the Arab countries, but were able to inflict a crushing defeat.

If war breaks out in the Caucasus, who will win?

I think, the Azeris may well achieve significant tactical successes, but they’ll pay for it a very large blood and very heavy losses of equipment.