By 2030, about one-third of Russians (29% or 43.7 million people) will be older than working age. Today, those 25%. The number of elderly citizens is growing from year to year with a slight decrease in the total population noted in the report of Rosstat published on the website of the Ministry of labor. And this raises a number of issues: whether the state adequately to fulfil its obligations to all these people, you will manage the pension system with increased load, whether it is necessary again to raise the age of retirement? Their explanations respondents give “MK” experts.
Pavel KUDYUKIN, a member of the Confederation of labour of Russia:
“population projections differ from other greatest accuracy. In this regard, driven by Rosstat figures are credible. Significantly more difficult to answer the question of how the state will solve the problem of pension provision-thirds of Russians. Ten years is a serious time, a lot of things can change. In 1908, in Russia, no one imagined how it would look in 2018. well, if a country is in principle nothing will change if the economic system will remain the same, the act government will be the same as it is now. That is, to slow down the indexation of pensions and further raise the retirement age. If suddenly Russia will have an effective economy, then due to the growth of labor productivity will be possible to provide pensioners a decent living.”
Sergey SMIRNOV, doctor of Economics (HSE):
“the State will not allow another increase in the retirement age as it is fraught with the surge of social discontent. Out of the situation, I see three. The first relates to labour migrants and their role in solving the problem of recovery of the Russian economy, as mentioned by President Putin. If they work in “white”, then go and deductions to the Pension Fund. The second way of solving the problem transfers from the Federal Treasury in the budget of the FIU. After the amendment to the Constitution, enshrines the provision of regular indexation of pensions, this seems quite a logical step. Yes, the age structure of the population changes, but the government will not abandon its commitments. Another thing is that some of the budget items will have to cut. Third option: the government will increase the amount of borrowing, including in the domestic market, at the expense of the citizens of Federal bonds”.
Alexander SAFONOV, Professor of the Financial University under the government of the Russian Federation:
“the state has other categories of citizens who receive social benefits. The issue of financial security of the growing number of pensioners can be solved at their expense. Relatively speaking, today, of the budget we spend per month.TS 100 rubles for children and 100 for the elderly. And in ten years we will spend $ 80 on the first and 120 in second. But for the economy the main risks associated with the reduction of workers and consumers, and it’s serious. So, it is necessary to rely on large families and strengthen policies supporting families. But it is better to follow the rule, once formulated by German scientists. It States that if a country provides the GDP growth rates of 5% and above, no problems associated with the natural aging of the population, it is not terrible”.
Anna BODROV, a senior analyst at IAC Alpari:
“someday Russia can come to a decision on how to further move the retirement age upwards. This will be revised and the scheme of calculation of pension payments. Many elderly people have to take care of financial security in their old age. It’s time to realize that the government is not interested to “sponsor” pensioners: they consume little consumer demand in the economy hardly create, but much trouble and the financial sector, and social”.
