because of the pandemic coronavirus, every fifth inhabitant of the planet appeared in conditions of isolation. For the transfer of staff to remote mode and spoke of the domestic Central Bank. The survey, conducted by the Head Hunter showed that he was adopted, or plan to do so in the near future 80% of respondents.
These developments have led experts to revise their scripts “a new reality”. In particular, in IK “the Renaissance the Capital” believe that the strict quarantine regulations in individual countries will continue in the third quarter of 2020. In addition, restrictions on international transport links, but the recovery will be slow.
All of this including suggests that commodity prices in the past two quarters will be kept at a low level, in particular crude will trade at $25-35 a barrel. Subsequently, it is expected “a gradual recovery”.
For the world economy all of this will result in a slowdown in GDP growth in 2020 to 2%. In the CIS countries, experts expect the slowdown of indices to negative values. It sounds scary, but analysts say that the results, however, can be better than the world average.
In favor of the CIS say early preventive measures are taken for 1-3 weeks earlier than in Europe, the UK and the USA that can not only contain the spread of the disease, but also to make the process less costly, as well as to facilitate recovery.
in addition, the majority of CIS countries, relatively low share of services HoReCa/entertainment in GDP (with the exception of Georgia, for all other share is less than 5% of GDP and less than 10% of consumption) and a relatively high proportion of government funded services. It including health care, education, cultural activities and other social areas. All this accounts for about one third of the employed in the country. And this should reduce direct costs associated with the pandemic and the burden on economic growtharticle.
among the downsides of analysts indicate sensitivity to commodity prices and the high share of hydrocarbons and metals in commodity exports.
with regard to Russia in particular, the experts noted the low level of debt (the same situation in Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan). In addition, Moscow has the lowest external debt. Plus the debt load of households below 20% of GDP.
“Intermediate scenario analysts IK “the Renaissance the Capital” provides for a reduction of Russia’s GDP growth to -0.8% y/y and global economic growth to 2% y/y in 2020 in the case of prolonged action global action to quarantine (at least Q1)”, — stated in the message of investment company — “In 2021, we expect recovery growth of Russia’s GDP up 3.0% yoy”.