In the agreement there are a few basic points. First – hand US and NATO are leaving Afghanistan for 14 months (now in Afghanistan there are about 16 thousand military personnel from 39 countries. Second – within 10 days must be released on 5 thousand Taliban prisoners, and the remaining captured members of the Taliban (banned in Russia) – for three months. And from all leaders of the movement “Taliban” sanctions are being lifted and their names removed from the “black list”. The third inter-Afghan negotiations must begin within 10 days after signing the agreement, that is, immediately after the release of 5 thousand Taliban prisoners.
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the Interests of Kabul in the contract is actually not taken into account. This was stated by the President of Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani. According to him, while “no agreements regarding the release of five thousand prisoners of the Taliban. This can be part of an intra-Afghan talks, but not their condition.” However, according to the Taliban, the agreement on this score there are. Apparently the American specialists are active behind the scenes of the Shuttle talks, but how they will be successful, the big question. As stated in an interview with RIA Novosti the special representative of Russian President on Afghanistan, Director of Second Asia Department at the Russian foreign Ministry Zamir Kabulov, who was present in Doha for the signing of the agreement, “there is no doubt that it will be possible to meet in ten days, as there are many other questions – release of prisoners on both sides. Nevertheless, it is important to make this happen and not drag on.”
Omar Nessar, Director of the Center for the study of modern Afghanistan:
– the Agreement was hastily signed on right now because the President of the United States Donald Trump should show before the beginning of the campaign, foreign policy successes. He hoped, perhaps, to achieve some breakthrough with Iran, but when it came out, immediately switched to AFganistan. It is known that there are a few proprietary applications to the current agreement. It can be assumed that they contain the details of achieving the objectives. Meanwhile, the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has said that Kabul there was no agreement regarding the release of Taliban prisoners. We must assume that Washington is hoping to negotiate with Gani, the only question is price. For example, to offer him support in getting the presidential post. Let me remind you that Gani has already suffered his inauguration on February 26-March 9, due to the fact that not everyone in Afghanistan recognize its victory in the recent elections last fall. But the Americans in any case have to try to get Ghani consent to the release of prisoners and the participation of Kabul in inter-Afghan negotiations.
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I’m also skeptical of U.S. promises to withdraw troops. During a recent visit to India, for example, trump mentioned that he intends to leave some part of the contingent in Afghanistan, while the Taliban rely on just the full withdrawal of all foreign troops.
Kabul, it seems, will be the loser, even if the intra-Afghan talks will start. Please note that the Taliban demand Afghan authorities to release within the next months all the prisoners of the radicals, while they themselves are willing to let go only a thousand under their captives from the Afghan military and security forces. That is, the beneficiaries will be the United States and the Taliban, but not Kabul.
in addition, there is a risk that the negotiations will be rejected by a significant number of the Taliban. It is no secret that the Taliban is fragmented, and a number of field commanders did not agree with the idea of negotiations. Yet supervisionin motion presents a Doha agreement as a real victory for the Taliban, which like most fighters. But then, most likely, will become difficult, from the Taliban will require concessions and compromises. It may not like some of the warlords, and they will join the radical forces, rejects any agreement with the United States and its “puppet” Kabul.
as for the future of the country, the government of Ashraf Ghani without the support of the US has no chance to stand against the Taliban. But the Taliban leadership understands that to rule in the 1990s, spreading the uncompromising and rigid Islamic rules, it will not succeed – Afghanistan changed much, national minorities became stronger and able to resist. Therefore, in case of a Taliban victory is unlikely to appear Emirate living under Sharia law as was in Afghanistan in 1996-2001. However, the format of the Republic will not agree, the Taliban is too secular option. Apparently, you can expect something average.