This is the basic (“moderately negative”) forecast scenario, it comes from a recovery in oil prices and the average cost of a barrel of Brent 40-45 dollars, and also increase the key rate from 6% to 7-7,5%, a recession would reduce employment in affected industries coronavirus.
because Of the high uncertainty of the trajectory of oil prices and scope of quarantine measures the Agency is considering two scenarios less probable, from his point of view, compared to the baseline.
the Central Bank recommended to give a second mortgage vacation because of a virus
the Crisis involves the approximation of mortgage rates to around 12%, the reduced volume of mortgage loans by 20-25% (from 2.8 trillion to 2.1-2.2 trillion rubles.). On the one hand, banks will restrict or stop lending clients “from the street” and increase the requirements for initial payment, on the other hand, purchasing power falls, says the review “the End of 2019, and forecast for 2020 in the mortgage market: the threat of infection.”
This scenario can be realized if the average price of a barrel to 35 dollars, the failure of the Bank of Russia currency interventions, which he has taken after the collapse in oil prices and the significant weakening of the ruble with the release of inflation at 7-8% at year-end. Against this background, suggests “Expert RA”, the Bank of Russia will have to raise its key interest rate to 9-10%.
in this scenario, the government may offer preferential loan programs for a broad range of borrowers by analogy with the program of subsidizing of rates in 2015-2016 to maintain the level of results, says the Agency.
Large families will find it easier to buy homes on mortgages
the Positive scenario assumes a decrease in average rate to 8.5% by year-end, the growth of disbursements by 10-15%, to 3.1 to 3.2 trillion rubles. the Main contribution to it will make the program of preferential mortgage. This scenario is based on the assumption that oil exporters will be able to quickly agree on a new version of the agreement OPEC+, the jump in exchange rates in March will not lead to a substantial increase in inflation risks, and the Bank of Russia will limit the suspension to reduce the key rate, but will not to increase it.
On February 1, the weighted average mortgage rate was 8.8%. It fell consistently from may 2019.