a Little more than a week left until 9 August, when Belarus will hold a presidential election. According to many experts, they may fail color revolution, during which the opposition tries to unseat Lukashenko. As the date draws near, the situation in the country is heating up. Lukashenko himself splashed some kerosene into the fire by staging a provocation to arrest the Russian citizens. What are the probable scenarios of development of events in Belarus, we talked with the former leader Odessa Antimaydana, a specialist in color revolutions Anton Davidchenko.
Anton, all the bewilderment in connection with the detention of Russian citizens who are just quietly and peacefully moved through Belarus in transit to another country. What was it?
– This is a provocation, which gave Lukashenko. He needs it so that he could under the pretext of preventing provocations to send troops to the capital. And I’m sure that he will bring the troops in Minsk before the election day. It will happen around the middle of next week. On election day he will be able to close the capital and will not allow any protests. Will have curfew, all will vote, and then prohibit to go out.
– Maybe this is a provocation, not Lukashenka, but someone from his entourage to finally embroil him with Russia?
– I think this is a tactical move of Lukashenko. The arrival of these people was not a secret to anyone – in fact everything in the country under the full control of the KGB. They were not carrying weapons. And the fact that they were all in one place, suggests that it is unlikely that they were preparing for some illegal actions in Belarus. But he needed the perfect excuse for the invasion of Minsk. He was looking for this occasion, was waiting for him. And found a reason. And the opposition has nothing to say in this matter – after all, blame Russia. Another thing is that it will have serious consequences for relations with Russia. In Belarus there will be more to spin anti-Russian hysteria. The West, the Western interveners and interested. But you need to consider both. The opposition has planned protests not only in Minsk but also in other cities. Especially in the West of the country, which is a stronghold of Belarusian nationalists who hate Russia and Lukashenko. I’m sure one of the centers of confrontation between the incumbent Grenoble.
– what Maidan is being prepared?
– Yes, I played the classic version of the color revolution, when the pretext for it is the election. The West is preparing on August 9, protests, but he will not have the goal to make the revolution immediately. The aim is another: to question the legitimacy of Lukashenko. It is clear that he declared himself the winner in the first round. And all the sociological the study, which will hold the West and the results of which will be thrown via the Internet, it will say that should be second round. It is the legitimacy of Lukashenko will be the main factor eliciting protests against the President of Belarus. But these appearances will be until this “smoldering Maidan”. The main blow is planned for November.
Why in November? What needs to happen in November?
In November-December, the plan to sign large package of documents on integration between Belarus and Russia. If we do not get a huge Maidana, he will be held in November. But under a different sauce. A pretext to independence was a Treaty with Russia. Lukashenka will not be allowed to sign anything. In fact, he is the architect of this “happiness”: he created all those nationalist organization, created a reason for anti-Russian hysteria. Will cover two points: first, Lukashenka is not legitimate, and secondly, he wants to sign a Treaty with Russia and to liquidate the statehood of Belarus. For the invaders it’s very important not to allow deep integration between our States.
– It’s like that in Kiev, people came out to protest against Yanukovych’s refusal to sign the Association agreement with the EU?
Yes, in Ukraine in 2004 was implemented the classic scenario of a color revolution after the elections, and after 10 years is another option. Belarus will pass this way in a few months. It is not known what will become an additional catalyst for the Maidan in Belarus. There is already quite a large number of radical, tough-minded against Russia. Experts say that in Ukraine in 2012 was not such anti-Russian thugs, what there is already in Belarus. Very interesting opinion was expressed by doctor of Sciences from Moscow state University Andrey manoylo. He said that Lukashenko specifically driven in this “anti-Russian corridor” that any step should he have to negotiate with the West and is constantly afraid of the Maidan. Step left, step right – execution.
– What technologies of color revolutions will use the Belarusian opposition?
– the Script will be launched on 9 August. The official figures will be announced later tonight or in the morning on Monday. But on Sunday all the media and social media will accelerate the numbers of “independent” exit polls that will say that the second round that the gap between the candidates is minimal and is 3-4%. For example, Tikhanovski 35-36%, while Lukashenko 39-40%. Around the requirements of the second round and will form a protest.
– a Color revolution, because so called, that it is very important symbolism, particularly the colors. That will be a symbol of the Belarusian revolution?
– the Main symbol of protest imagesexpression of a hand compressed in a fist. This symbol is used on the invaders to the world during the color revolutions. Maidan will take place under nationalist symbols. The opposition will ribbon in the colors white-red-white flag of the Belarusian people’s Republic (1918 – 1919 years). Also the symbol will be “the Chase” – the emblem of the Belarusian people’s Republic and the Republic of Belarus in 1991 – 1995: on a red background the white horse rider with a sword.
Maidan will take place under anti-Russian slogans?
– In the first stage, they will try to minimize anti-Russian statements. Because it is now important to gather as many people as possible. It is important for them not to share is now unhappy with Lukashenka on the “Pro” and “anti-Russian”. In Ukraine in 2013 on the Maidan told everyone: “we are not against Russia, we are the main thing – to overthrow the regime of Yanukovych.”
– Yes, I remember that.
– But when toppled, the main enemy was Russia. The same thing will happen here. In November it will be clearly natsionalisticheskie anti-Russian Maidan. And I am sure that Lukashenko is anything with Russia will not sign.
do you see Any signs that the Maidan is being prepared?
International pressure. In the West near Belarusian embassies and consulates have already begun the protest action, held under nationalist white-red-white symbols. There is already formed the view that Lukashenko is a tyrant, that he has a low rating. Over the past two months we counted abroad about 40 actions in support of the opposition. Despite the fact that the election has not yet taken place. I am sure that after 9 August the world will be the wave of the shares with calls to introduce sanctions against Lukashenko.
We also drew attention to the increase dozens of times the number of mass actions in Belarus itself. Only last month it took nearly a hundred street protests. It also demonstrates the preparation of a color revolution.
does the opposition “training manual, Sharpe?”
Methods sharp used invaders in any country-the recipient in the preparation of a color revolution. In Belarus, for example, the bike rides, the queues in which they lined up to give a signature for the opposition candidate, mA’am, “Sasha 3%”.
But the mass protests across the country. They were big enough: and 5 and 7 thousand people. A huge number of small actions, flash mobs. Last month we counted in Belarus, about three hundred flash mobs. The number of participants could be 5-10, but it created the illusion of mass. Provoking law enforcement to detention. In the media and social networks it was served accordingly. All actions of the opposition were systemic, competent character in order to create the image of Lukashenko dictator.
Unwinds the classic “spiral of silence”. The goal is to makes people did not speak out in support of Lukashenka. After 9 August it will be very important to shape public opinion that all organization, all the Crowbars ((opinion leaders) – against Lukashenko. And we see that if someone tries the Internet to support Lukashenka, to say that he has a chance to win it instantly from its pages a huge number of dislikes allowed. This suggests that a “spiral of silence” that people were afraid to Express their opinions in social networks, on their pages on the Internet. And we see that now the supporters of Lukashenko expressed his opinion mainly on state television. After August 9 we will see that none of the Scrap will not be to Express support for Lukashenka. Here are the methods they use now.
– And the spin doctors of Lukashenko use the Internet?
– the Internet is completely lost to Lukashenka. People are afraid to speak out in support of it, because they begin to make fun of, to ridicule. Facebook, telegram all-channels – fully antilukashenkovskie. They will be the main area which will disperse the protest. Another technology, which will be played on 9 August, called “We – they”. Why during the revolution, it is important to use the symbols – ribbon, flag, coat of arms “Pursuit”? Because it allows you to divide people into enemies and friends. This is the technology of “them”. A man says: “If you’re not with us, then you’re the enemy.” Even if you really are in the soul do not support either party, you’ll have to decide. And most likely, you will choose those who passionarnye much and from whom more aggressive symbols.
– That is, the Belarusian opposition is well prepared for August 9?
– Yes. All of it’s supporters is sure to be this white-red-white ribbon. They will position themselves so “We the youth, we the future of the country, for its development, and all who are against us – it is the reactionaries, the corrupt state of Lukashenko, which has already rot.” These technologies are used in Ukraine, and recently in Armenia, and we see that in all the countries where the colored revolutions, they will try to divide people into friends and enemies, which are necessarily government officials, law enforcement agencies.
will act As security officers?
– One of the main tasks of protesters on 9 August will be provoking law enforcement into their own detention. Ideal to them if someone dies. Because we need a bright catalyst of events that can bring masses of people into the streets. One of non-recognition of the election results for this little. In 2013 in Ukraine to disperse the students, the Maidan is already exhausted, on the square there were about 500 people. And after the “beating of children” on the streets 200-300 thousand��h Kiev.
– What are the scenarios you see?
I’m a hundred percent certain that Lukashenko will bring the troops using the detained Russians as an excuse. Will say that this is necessary to prevent provocations. It is as close the center of Minsk. Everywhere will stand frames, will stand military. On the areas people will be allowed only by permit. It will prohibit movement in the city. He needs to make Minsk a closed city, not to let the protesters into the streets. But I’m sure it will have the opposite effect. The opposition will go to the regions – Brest, Grodno, and they become hotbeds of protests. These regions will be United and will March on Minsk, huge columns, urging people to come out. And any dispersal of these people, the more blood will only provoke a conflict.
But this is a radical scenario. There are more soft. If Lukashenko fully accept the terms of the invaders from Washington and London, then I am sure there will give the command eventually just “merge” the Maidan. But this independence at any moment to meet again as soon as Lukashenka wants to sign a package of documents on integration with Russia.
So what Lukashenka has in any case a difficult position. He drove himself to the anti-Russian corridor. And even if now he will be able to cope with the situation, then he will have either to completely clean all the tools of Western influence, and that NGOs and opinion leaders, and the media. Either it makes no sense to talk about some kind of integration with Russia, the West will not allow it. It is already clear. Unfortunately, RF is not able to create the example of the West system of instruments of influence, even in a close country like Belarus, which, as it seemed, all our. A year ago none of the experts even suggested that Belarus could turn into anti-Russian state. Just us and a few expert centers literally shouted: note, where is Belarus.
How to act Lukashenka?
– I assume that Lukashenko will act this way. He next week will shut off in Minsk, and maybe in Belarus, the social network, and maybe the entire Internet. Referring to the fact that it will carry out anti-terrorist operation. It is very important how many people will come today in Minsk at the meeting Tikhanovski (the conversation took place on Thursday 30 July as the day – M. P.). If you come more than 20 thousand people, on August 9 will be 50-70 thousand. And in order to make the Maidan, enough 50 thousand, as shown by Kiev. ( At the meeting on Thursday went according to Belarusian Ministry of internal Affairs — 18 thousand people, and according to the human rights center “Viasna” – 63 thousand.)
So in Belarus, the invaders created their own instruments of influence, Russia has been overlooked. And now Lukashenka has no way to get out of that the corridor which he established the West. I often say: don’t compare Lukashenka and Yanukovych. Two days before Yanukovych’s flight to Russia all the officials he told me that he has everything under control, that he will deal with independence. Last year, Bolivian President Evo Morales also told everyone that he controls everything in the country, he held elections which were won, and then he boarded a plane and fled. The leader of any country in which the invaders carry out a color revolution, believes that he is very strong, keeps everything under control, and his elite loyal to him. In Belarus, the elite have long been bribed by Western agents, long been playing a double game. In particular, the Minister of foreign Affairs Vladimir Mackay. He always flies to London. Yushchenko, incidentally, was Prime Minister under Kuchma. So needless to say, that someone is someone committed. Much more interesting to lead the country.
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