the European diplomats, seeking to use Iranian campaign of “maximum pressure” of the administration of the trump in the negotiations on the new deal, are increasingly of concern. According to them, in recent months, U.S. officials have convinced themselves that the Iranian regime is on the verge of collapse. They do not show much interest in having to return to the negotiating table, even though the expansion of Tehran’s nuclear program.
European officials acknowledge that the Iranian regime is under pressure, including because of the recent protests and the re-introduction of destructive U.S. sanctions against energy and banking sectors of Iran. This happened after the release of the trump of the nuclear deal in 2015. But the Europeans do not agree with the belief of the administration to trump that with the Iranian regime is over and he’s either just collapse, or will be forced to give a long ‘wish list’ of the US becoming a “normal country” as it usually refers to the US Secretary of state Mike Pompeo.
“the problem with the campaign is the maximum pressure that it carries too high a risk… the Answer to the problem no, if the maximum pressure will push Iran on nuclear deal and they will resume expansion of its nuclear program. What to do in this case?”, said the European diplomatic source.
Previously, trump said that he was not interested in changing the Iranian regime. However, he mentioned the Iranian protests in its observations on foreign relations in Message of 4 Feb. He teased the prospect of Iran from the sanctions. And then added that Iran should make any attempt, noting that officials in Tehran are too proud to do it.
“In recent months we witnessed how proud the Iranians opposed their oppressive rulers. The Iranian regime must abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons; to stop the spread of terror, death and destruction; to start working on blah blahth his people… because Of our powerful sanctions, the Iranian economy is very bad. We can help them to recover quickly. Everything can go very fast, but perhaps they are too proud or too stupid to ask about this assistance. Let’s see what road they choose. It all depends on them,” said trump.
the European diplomats said that the administration trump has taken a keen interest in the efforts made by the President of France Emmanuel Macron last summer and fall trying to arrange talks between the US and Iran, which trump wanted to start with a good picture with his Iranian counterpart. But the Iranians have insisted that before the meeting they were confident that the sanctions will be mitigated to some extent.
the French say that made the United States and Iran to agree on quadripartite structure future negotiations. However, the efforts of trump, or a phone call with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani at the UN General Assembly in new York in September without success. Subsequent efforts to establish a framework and to further negotiations to reduce tensions at an impasse when, in November, in Iran, protests erupted over the increasing gas prices. The administration of the tramp convinced that the Iranian regime will experience more pressure and to refrain from negotiations, said Ali Vaez, Director of the Iran program of the International crisis group.
the Administration trump believes that because of the protests “the Iranians are in a weaker position. In General, the US is not ready to make significant concessions to the Iranians… the weaker side does not make the first step in any diplomatic initiative. To the assignment of the strongest there is… the French kept repeating that the President trump was much more flexible and open than any of the others,” added Vaez.
Other European diplomats and analysts also believe that trump is hardly the only administration who has provedIl interest to sit down at the negotiating table with Iran. Most focused on the campaign maximum pressure.
“I think everyone is trying to understand the impact that the interest of the President of the United States the new deal is having on the administration and its willingness to negotiate. On the other hand, the US administration concentrated only on the campaign maximum pressure. Still trying to figure out, does this difference of positions between the President and his own administration opportunities to work on new negotiations with Iran, or not. And it is an open question, because the situation is extremely volatile,” said Charles of Tepo, a French expert on foreign policy.
After January 3 on the orders of the USA was assassinated the Iranian chief of the forces of “Quds” Qassem Soleimani, “the US administration shows no signs of readiness to prepare for the negotiations,” continued the Tepo. “But the situation can change dramatically depending on a number of factors… Regardless of what people think about the campaign for maximum pressure, it has led to the fact that Iran has restricted some of its obligations and approached the acquisition of nuclear capabilities. And that is why the Europeans made use of the dispute settlement mechanism and opened the door for negotiations between Iran and the United States. Since the problem of combating the spread means that some of the provisions JCPOA — limiting enrichment of uranium — are in danger,” — said the Tepo.
the foreign Minister of the European Union Joseph Borrell, who committed his first trip to Iran earlier this week to meet Pompeo at the state Department Friday.
the Iranians have been calm and polite in his meetings with Borrell and his delegation, said the EU representative. According to him, they do not rule out the possibility of negotiations and create conditions for their implementation. This implies that bilateral negotiations with the United States will not, and any negotiations Dolmust was be held in the format of P5+1 (five permanent members of the UN Security Council+Germany), who led the negotiations on the nuclear deal with Iran. The Iranians said that the sanctions should be lifted before talks on a new deal.
At the end of this month, Iran is to hold parliamentary elections, where the dominant position is the conservatives and hardliners.
“as a result of trump’s policy towards Iran… no one in Tehran does not dare to speak about the benefits of the negotiations, not to mention the fact to offer a new round of talks with the United States,” — said in January Ruholla Faghihi from Al-Monitor.