The June withdrawal of quarantine restrictions is practically not manifested in financial flows, which monitors the Bank of Russia. Some growth, which Central Bank analysts say with the caveat “possible” in the last week of June is only found in certain areas of retail trade, fluctuations in investment demand, despite government spending, not beyond normal, exports still in deep red. Population as a source of demand in June only stabilised their position after the fall of revenues, but in no hurry to spend money due to uncertainty in the labour market. “Crisis” of social support compensates for only part of the lost income of families with children and the already unemployed and the demand is clearly not reflected.Monitoring of sectoral financial flows, published yesterday by the Bank of Russia, does not record significant positive changes in demand in the last decade of June. Analysts of the Central Bank noted that the dynamics of incoming payments indicates “the possible revival of economic activity” (improving deviation from the historical level) only in certain industries, primarily focused on consumer demand — in terms of retailing, and the manufacture of tobacco and beverages in connection with the “lifting of restrictions, including on the operation of enterprises of public catering” with the qualification that the interpretation of the data distorts one day. Improved performance of Investstroy — first of all in electronics manufacturing, machinery and equipment and in construction — do not go beyond the normal fluctuations of incoming and outgoing flows. “Investement we have a very small. As in construction, there has not been a failure, therefore, and the restoration to speak especially not necessary,”— says Vladimir Salnikov of CMASF. “To resist” investorss likely helped demand from the state. According to surveys of the Gaidar Institute, manufacturing companies, investment plans of industry in may—June “played” only 10 of the 40 points lost in April, their balance remains significantly negative (minus 28 points), the de facto demonstrating intent to reduce investaktivnost in the third quarter of 2020 in comparison with the same period of 2019, despite the decline in satisfaction with the volume of capital investments in the second quarter to 45 percent from 60 percent in the first. “Low demand for loans and weak growth are the medium-term trend (with the possible second wave COVID-19 will lead to a lending squeeze)”— analysts of Raiffeisenbank. “In General, I don’t see a recovery in June. Electricity consumption continued to decline and production performance vehicles segment, traditionally reflects the crisis has worsened,”— said Vladimir Salnikov.Households as a source of demand in July was also not dehave monsterously significant changes in financial position: for most respondents (64%) it remained unchanged, deteriorated to 32% (an increase of 3 percentage points). Among the reasons for the deterioration — partial (14%) or all (9%) loss of revenue and rising costs (10% of the share has increased since the beginning of June to 3 percentage points). Among all respondents about the growth of costs, as in the beginning of June, say 47%, have not changed, they have 43% (38% in may), decreased in 6% (9% in may). The costs rarely increase the situation associated with the epidemic, often spending on major purchases and family holidays (an increase from 1% to 5%, which, apparently, is reflected in the indices of retail). The situation with savings is stable: as in the beginning of the month, they are not 41%, from having savings to live on for three or more months 43% (22% of all respondents), six months — 15%. Over the past two weeks have spent a cumulative 27% of those who have them.As noted by Igor Field of says, indirectly, stabilization of households can say the improvement in consumer sentiment, but “it is difficult to assess whether the unemployment rate to rise in the third quarter: there are no reliable estimates of the prospects of economic activity”. And even unchanged employment may be accompanied by falling wages in June, the proportion saying about rose 4 percentage points to 27%. Portion of the reduction in revenue can compensate for the measures to support families with children as a significant proportion of households. Assessment of the Higher school of economy, for families with children up to seven years kompensiruet on average 43% of their income over seven years — 24%. However, although these benefits will add to the incomes of about 288 billion rubles, or 0.5% of the cash income of the population in 2019, they will allow only locally to mitigate the impact of the crisis, but will not return to pre-crisis level of wealth.Alexey Shapovalov, Anastasia Manuylova
Austin Weather Forecast
16.5 ° C
Latest News & Headlines
Recently, the Bank of Zambia, the country's central bank, reported technical failures. Now it has become known that these are due to a cyber...