The CSU, the conservative party and ally crucial for Angela Merkel, has recorded this Sunday, a snub electoral history in Bavaria, weakening the government of the German chancellor. The social christian Union, “party brother” of the CDU of Angela Merkel, who dominated the region since the 1950s, came of course head to the regional, but his score of approximately 35-36 % of all a breakup policy, according to projections by public broadcasters ARD and ZDF.

She loses a dozen points compared to 2013, its absolute majority and will be forced to seek an alliance uncomfortable with one or several formations. Other bad news for the chancellor, the other member of the government coalition, the social democrats of the SPD, suffered a slap in the face (9.5% of the votes).

The winners of the election are the Greens, 2nd with 18-19 %, and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, far-right, anti-Merkel and anti-migrantq (11 %) which is found at the elbow-to-elbow with the Freie Wähler, the conservative bavarian self-employed (11.6 per cent). The liberals of the FDP (5 %) close the ranks.

“Warning”

These results have nothing to reassure the chancellor, as much as his own party, the CDU, will face a ballot arduous on October 28, in Hesse, the Land that the conservatives run in coalition with the ecologists. “This is a warning for the CDU and that’s why our priority for the next two weeks should be the Hesse “, said on Sunday the secretary general of the party Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, on the eve of a meeting of the leadership of the christian democrats, Angela Merkel.

The elections in Bavaria and Hesse are not trivial to the chancellor must face in December by a vote of militants to be extended to the head of the CDU. The power in the first european economy for the past 13 years, the chancellor has had a very difficult year, as a result of its policy decision of 2015 to open up Germany more than a million asylum-seekers.

Even if it has tightened up considerably the reception of migrants, Angela Merkel has been hampered by the rise of the extreme right in legislative elections in September 2017. She has had to work for six months to form a coalition government, eventually with the social democrats, recalcitrant. Then, during the summer of 2018, the CSU bavarian rebelled, led by its chief, the Interior minister Horst Seehofer, who risked twice to bring down the government by pushing the themes dear to the AfD. The head of the SPD, Andrea Nahles, the general secretary of the CDU have also noted on Sunday that such crises have contributed to the penalty bavarian.

Call of early elections

” It is indisputable “, held Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer. “One of the causes is certainly the poor performance of the grand coalition in Berlin,” noted Andrea Nahles. The AfD is on his side appreciated the outcome in Bavaria, calling even of early elections. “The one that voted for AfD in Bavaria also said “Merkel must go” “, was unleashed one of its leaders, Alice Weidel, ” free the way for early elections ! “

The polls of the last month illustrate the dislike of the Germans for this coalition of the CDU/CSU-SPD in power who navigates the crisis in dispute since its formation in march. The barometer published Sunday by the Bild-zeitung will credit the conservatives with a poor 26 %. The SPD végète to 17 %, the same level as the Green full of confidence and just in front of the extreme right (15 %). To illustrate this reshaping of the political landscape, the strategy right-handed deployed by the CSU to regain the votes won by the AfD has not had the desired effect.

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According to the polls, the citizens are tempted by the far-right have not been convinced to return to the bosom of the conservative, and other, more moderate, have turned to the Green. “The one that runs behind the far right lost “, noted, not without satisfaction, the codirigeante Green Annalena Baerbock. Last problem for the chancellor, the intentions of the SPD in the medium term. Since the beginning of the legislature, voices have been clamouring for an exit from the government and a makeover in the opposition. Such a scenario would be likely early election and a departure from Angela Merkel before the end of his term in 2021.

On the same topic in Elections in Bavaria : the CSU, in fire and blood