These two are waging war sly for months within the same party, the CSU, bavarian. A side Horst Seehofer, 69, party leader and Interior minister in the Merkel government. It is the representative of the interests of Bavaria in Berlin. And the other Markus Söder, age 51, minister-president of Bavaria. It is he who reigns in Munich on this region is legendary, one of the most prosperous of Germany. The two roles are complementary and the two men who, if all had gone normally, would have had to work hand in hand to allow a new triumph of their party in the elections of Sunday.

The enmity between the two men do not date from yesterday. Their rivalry is no secret. After the losses incurred by the CSU in the federal election last year, Horst Seehofer is obliged to assign his chair of minister president of the Land to Markus Söder. He has the impression that it was put on the door. The relationship between the two has only deteriorated since.

today, the CSU is the most evil. The earthquake that has been brewing for months, is expected to take place on Sunday evening. If the polls are to be believed, this party in a situation of quasi-monopoly in the region is expected to lose the absolute majority that he is a subscriber to a short intermezzo near – 2008 to 2013 – since the creation of the party. The question remains, who will wear the hat of this helter-skelter history. The two barons bavarian is blame one another.

Outbid

Horst Seehofer strives to remember that an election for regional plays on regional issues. Markus Söder, on the contrary, recalls the good economic health of its region, both at the forefront of new technologies and firmly entrenched in its traditions, beer and breeches of skin. He said that if the CSU is weakened, it is the policy of Berlin that is at fault, and especially the attitude of the minister of the Interior. Since he came to the government by the great gate, Horst Seehofer does not cease to destabilize the grand coalition CDU/CSU/SPD fragile.

To ensure the loyalty of its sister bavarian, Angela Merkel gave in to Horst Seehofer, the super-portfolio of the Interior, responsible for, inter alia, the issue of migrants. A decision that was painful, had confessed to the chancellor usually very discreet. Since Horst Seehofer does not stop the attack : by declaring that’ islam is not part of Germany “, while Angela Merkel preaches the contrary, by claiming a hardening sensitive to the migration policy. For weeks, the “dispute over the asylum” is shaking the GroKo. The social-democrats threaten several times to leave the government. Angela Merkel is obliged to go to beg for a compromise with its european neighbours to calm her minister and saving the Union of the CDU and the CSU.

But Horst Seehofer, did not budge. He became the bête noire of the liberal press. The leaders of the local chapters of the CSU are part of the dissatisfaction of their members. They have had enough of this minister’s stubborn that causes harm to their party. A large majority of the christian-social wish to the departure of their leader. Moreover, its strategy of the fit-in does not pay. He who hoped to rally the voters seduced by the populist AfD has the opposite effect. The CSU plummets in the polls. Last spring, she could still hope to 40 % of the vote. On the eve of Sunday’s elections, it is no more than 33 % of voting intentions. A number of catholic voters, for whom drag their ballots CSU in the urn was a no-brainer, suddenly start to vote for the Greens or the Liberals. The hard line adopted by Seehofer on the issue of migrants is incompatible with their faith, they say.

Useless crucifix

In Munich, Markus Söder, who is going to wipe the plasters is furious. It must be said, however, that the minister-president of Bavaria did not go to endowment him not to return to the fold voters, seduced by the extreme right. To remind the christian tradition of Bavaria, it makes mandatory the installation of a crucifix in a visible place in the entrance hall of the public buildings of her region, triggering a controversy national. A strategy which, it either, has obviously not paid.

Read also of Bavaria, a crucifix, to ward off the danger of the AfD

What will happen in the aftermath of the elections : Markus Söder will he take advantage of this catastrophic result announced to precipitate the departure of Horst Seehofer in Berlin and the head of the party ? Horst Seehofer he did not intend to admit defeat. “We all carry a great responsibility for our region and for our country,” certifies Horst Seehofer, which ensures that it will be re-elected leader of the party in the fall of 2019 and that it still has a great task to accomplish as the minister of the Interior in Berlin. That, as they say in Munich, have the knack of putting his rival Söder out of it.