The Turks have punished Recep Erdogan (65) in the major cities. In the municipal elections on Sunday, his ACP lost in the capital Ankara as well as in the tourist centre of Antalya. Especially in Istanbul, where Erdogan in 1994, launched his political career, gave the Turkish President just hate to be beaten. On Monday, he acknowledged the defeat.

The “question of Survival” was primarily a means to mobilize voters. Erdogan wants to be at least until 2023, state President. Then the Republic will be 100 years old – the symbol of power, because he sees himself as the head of the “new” Turkey.

he doesn’t have to. For him, the advantage of the presidential system: The Power is concentrated on the President. In the Kurdish cities he had sold previously, the most important mayor and administrator.

Bilgin Ayata is an assistant Professor of political sociology at the University of Basel and conducts research on the Middle East and Europe, especially to Turkey. As at universities in the USA usual, the German scientist never has to show their age.

time until Then nothing will change – even though Erdogan’s AKP in all big cities, there is a choice of a mere importation?
The result is treated with caution: If Erdogan’s election results do not fit, he has to maneuver the Council of Europe. We have seen that in the national elections in 2015: In June, he lost Power in November, there was a new election, the AKP strengthened.

EU doesn’t matter, as long as Erdogan keeps the refugees in a remote

A change in democracies is possible through elections. Of a democratic System of Turkey is gone but since the Transition to the presidential System very far.

For Europe the question of democracy, but the migration control in the foreground. As long as Erdogan maintains the Syrian refugees in Turkey, he can rage against the opposition, and rule as he wants.

Four years is a very long time. Turkey is economically exposed to in a critical location and a number of geopolitical challenges. The economy is suffering, also feel the ACP voters, which often come from the under layer. If the ACP can turn this course plays an important role in the next elections. Important is the situation on the border with Syria and the Kurdish conflict are also. A weakened civil society is coming – key players, associations and foundations will be pursued and closed. The prokurdische party HDP, has been virtually wiped out. Your hope Selahattin Demirtas held for two and a half years in prison.

In the AKP electorate, there is also a big fear of a regime change. After years of repression of the Erdogan opponents has not only the Elite fear of loss of power: Erdogan’s supporters in the population have a fear of a change of mood, and revenge against the support shaft, similar to, for example, in Egypt.

Assad’s supporters dominate almost the whole of the Western part of the country, from Aleppo in the North, through the centre of the capital Damascus to the city of Daraa in the South, where the uprising in the spring of 2011 had begun. Assad also relies on local militias and from Iranian-backed by foreign Shia militias such as Hezbollah from Lebanon. The Russian armed forces in support of Assad with air attacks.

One of their last remaining strongholds of the Region around the city of Idlib in Northwest Syria. One of the strongest armed groups in the organization Tahrir al-sham (HTS), which formerly belonged to the terrorist network Al-Qaeda.

Together with Sunni Syrian rebels by Turkish troops, and dominate an area to the North of Idlib in and around the city of Afrin. The Turkish army was here invaded in the spring, and had expelled the Kurdish militia YPG. The Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is now threatening a new Offensive against the Kurds further to the East in Northern Syria.

they dominate large areas in the North and East of Syria, and have established a self-government. The Kurdish militia YPG is leading a coalition of local Arab groups. The so-called Syrian Democratic forces (SDF) to fight close to the border with Iraq, one of the last bastions of the IS. The Kurds also control the major Oil reserves of the civil war country. With a view to a possible attack of the Turks, as a lie, you must now the city of Manbij the government troops.

Washington has about 2000 man in the country, in support of the YPG and SDF, with training. The U.S. troops are to be withdrawn in the coming months from Syria, which would make the Kurdish militias for a Turkish attack vulnerable. In the West of Iraq, so close to the border with Syria, wants to build the U.S. military has two bases, if necessary, from there, in fighting against the IS.

The so-called Islamic state (IS) Sunni terror gangs has lost its former dominion almost completely. In the East, he controlled a small territory in the valley of the Euphrates river. In the desert regions of Syria and Iraq, cells are active, the terrorist attacks. In addition, several Thousands of IS fighters in Kurdish prisons. (SDA)