By the end of 2020 the pace of GDP growth in the Russian economy can be reduced from the previously expected 2% to 0.2%, the dynamics of incomes of the population will be zero, investment in fixed capital, while maintaining funding in the framework of national projects, will grow by 2%. Exports will decline by 2% and imports by 8% (the result of the weak ruble). At the most probable average annual oil price of 35 dollars per barrel equilibrium exchange rate will account for 85 rubles for a dollar, to stabilize the exchange rate at the level of 75 rubles, the Central Bank must be used in the framework of the already initiated interventions (“standard” and “advanced”) $ 35 billion of foreign exchange reserves.
Mishustin told when the global economy starts to recover
the following assessment contains a preliminary forecast prepared by the Institute of economic forecasting Russian Academy of Sciences. It is not a crisis, but the recession is very reminiscent of the situation in 2016.
At the same time according to current estimates, the epidemic of coronavirus has cost the world economy in 2020, to slow the growth by 1-1. 5 percentage points. This means that it will be only about 1%.
Given the prohibitive level of cross-redundancy within the budgetary and financial system, the forecast of IEF RAS on the assumption that all budget plans for 2020 will be met, including reserves. Institute, show that the consolidated budget deficit reaching 3.5% of GDP, Federal – 2% of GDP. With long-term persistence of low oil prices will inevitably escalate the discussion about “ceilings” in public spending and priorities in the financing of projects, and indicates the corresponding member of RAS, Deputy Director of the Institute of economic forecasting Alexander Shithe ditch.
It is not a crisis, but the recession is very reminiscent of the situation in 2016
it is a new form of the crisis will require the government of the first measures to support the population, according to the forecast. If the citizens working in the public sector and large companies will, no doubt, regularly receive wages, even in conditions of temporary downtime, in respect of employees in small and medium businesses no such certainty. These people need to pay unemployment benefits at a larger size, says Shirov. Tax support measures under the prevailing conditions will be ineffective, as they will not be able to quickly affect the income of the population. The problem of direct subsidies in demand is due to a number of technical challenges. If pensioners and state employees all more or less clear, what to do with the other is not clear; it could be focused on ensuring demand for the purchase of essential goods (food, medicine).
the President spoke about the new look of the Russian business
For large businesses, the main difference of the current situation from previous crises is that, after the imposition of sanctions disappeared, the risks associated with foreign currency credits key public companies. In addition to those already taken or envisaged by the government decisions, you can use established in 2009 and 2015 anti – crisis measures- concessional lending to the leading companies, the expansion of the instruments of state guarantees on loans, the increase in the procurement automotive and utility vehicles, and housing for servicemen as well as the expansion of incentive programs for car buyers, said Shirov.
the Official forecast of Ministry of economic development should be submitted to the governmentin in April. Obviously, the January version of the forecast in March, is hopelessly outdated (the acceleration of GDP growth to 1.9%, the average price of Urals 57,7 per barrel, the average dollar exchange rate 63.9 ruble).
Infographics “RG”/Anton Bookbinders/Igor Zubkov