the Russian economy faces in the year 2020 a sharp drop. Such a conclusion can be drawn from the fresh three-year forecast socially-economic development of our country prepared by the Ministry of economic development (MED). All key macroeconomic indicators will shrink noticeably: GDP, industrial production, incomes of the population. A budget surplus of recent years will be replaced by a deep deficit. The output of the domestic economy from the crisis, according to the forecast, the rapid will not work: it will take several years, during which time the state will have to be content with very modest incomes of the budget, as well as personal incomes of citizens and even more so go in minus for a long time.
the national GDP, as the MAYOR predicts this year will be reduced by 5% and real disposable income to decline by 3.8%. Some recovery followed only in 2021, when, as suggested by the Agency, the economy will grow 2.8%. “We have a long way to the mountain,” warns the Minister of economic development Maxim Reshetnikov.
the Main blow of the pandemic coronavirus have for the II quarter of this year. Its consequence will be a reduction in GDP of 9.5%, but closer to the end of the year will become somewhat easier. Then the recession will be reduced to 5.2%. Perhaps, some support to domestic Finance will have the oil prices which, according to the MAYOR, in the second half of the year should not fall below $30 per barrel. To $40 the cost of a barrel will reach, according to the forecast, by the end of next year. Moreover, even such quotations of Urals will remain below their reference prices laid down in the current budget level of $42,4-of 43.2. In this regard, the Russian budget will go into a state of deficit, and until 2023, the Ministry of Finance will have to Fund the lack of oil and gas revenues from the national welfare Fund.
it is Worth noting that some gloomy predictions, the MAYOR still inferior according to the degree of pessimism of the assumptions of the independent experts on the future of the Russian economy. Renowned economist Mikhail Khazin, I am sure that in 2020 our country will lose up to 10% of GDP. According to him, financial failure was brewing a few years, so to get out of it, especially in the context of a pandemic of mers will be extremely difficult. His words are confirmed by the experts of the Higher school of economy: the Outlook — GDP decline will come close to 11%. In turn, analysts Bloomberg believe that the Russian financial sector this year will suffer much more serious than the previous crisis of 2008-2009 and 2014-2015-second period, and the decline in GDP in the second quarter will reach 16%.
Doctor of Economics Igor Nikolaev also believes that the total fall in GDP in 2020 will be much larger than 5%, by the MAYOR. The expert recalled that Russia’s nominal GDP in April, according to the Ministry of Finance, fell by 28%. A consequence of the dramatic fall of the economy will be a noticeable reduction in real income, which will exceed the identified forecast indicator -3,8%, says the interlocutor of “MK”.
Leading expert of Institute of modern development Nikita Maslennikov also believes the most important indicator of the macroeconomic forecast, the MAYOR, as to the falling incomes of the population. The expert drew attention to the fact that during the regime of isolation of the Russians seriously overspend. “But to go shopping and spend the accumulated savings, other entertainment they were banned. The amount of cash in the hands of citizens of our country, as follows from statistics of the Central Bank, for the first four months of the year grew by more than 360 billion rubles. Now the amount of “cash” is reduced or, as the Central Bank, normalized. But this does not mean that the population has become more financial as well as every other family spent the last stash”, – says the expert. According to him, to buy anything substantial — consumer electronics, real estate, cars or silverware is now quite difficult. Therefore, Maslennikov advises those who have left some means, save them for the future. Because, according to his estimates, “2021 we will have to survive with much more serious economic difficulties than the present”.
