Specifically, the Institute BAK Economics has lowered its forecast for the current year. It now expects a shrinkage of the gross domestic product of 2.5 percent. Previously, it was assumed that a growth rate of 1.3 percent.
Significantly more pessimistic, the Economists of the big Bank, UBS, had said nearly two weeks ago, a growth of 0.7 percent became. They now expect in the current year, in the best case, a decline in GDP of 1.3 per cent, but a decline of up to 3 percent for even more realistic.
Previously, had been cut with other institutions in their forecasts. So already the Economists of the Federal government, the national Bank, Credit Suisse and Raiffeisen for 2020 had a decline in growth in views.
Like all other institutions, BAK Economics and the UBS emphasize the high uncertainty of the prediction: “We are aware that the situation in two weeks, otherwise present”, write about the UBS experts.
Sure they are, but the front hand, that the pandemic will lead to a strong decline in the Swiss growth in the first half of the year. Decisive for the prognosis then, when the Corona-measures be repealed.
In the case of BAK Economics is due to the protective measures to curb the pandemic of a “full braking” of the speech. A severe recession was avoided.
BAK Economics and UBS expect both that the economy will recover after the pandemic quickly. The UBS is for 2021 a growth rate of 2.0 to 2.2 percent, BAK Economics even of 4.3 percent.
whether Economists will be Crucial for a recovery, however, the UBS, that there is neither a sharp increase in unemployment to a broke shaft. In such a case, the recovery would be compromised, which could lead to a prolonged economic crisis.
such A crisis in a strong reaction” of the fiscal policy, according to the experts, the Bank can prevent “. According to their calculations, an increase in the debt to GDP ratio to 20 per cent, or 145 billion Swiss francs in it lies, without a credit rating would have to be taken to be buses (AAA Status) in purchasing. (SDA)
The Coronavirus currently holds the world in suspense. Many countries are taking measures such as Closing schools or limiting public events, to prevent the spread. In Switzerland, too, the grass, the Virus magnetized. All of the current information and Figures around the topic there is in the Coronavirus-Ticker.
measures against Coronavirus
The Federal Council ranks at 16. In March, the Situation in Switzerland according to a new extraordinary location epidemic law. It allows the Federal Council, in all the cantons of uniform measures to be arranged. Previously, he has informed the cantons on this step. From the age of 17. March, at midnight, the following rules apply:
Public and private events are prohibited.All the shops, Restaurants and Bars are up on the 19. April 2020 closed.The same applies to entertainment and leisure establishments such as museums, libraries, cinemas, concert and theatre houses, sports centres, swimming pools and ski resorts are closed. Likewise, plants are being closed, in which the
keep a safe distance cannot be maintained, such as hairdressing salons or cosmetic studios.Except under others food stores and the health facilities.The supply of the entire population with food, medicines and Goods of daily use is assured: There are plenty of created supplies.Food shops, Take-aways, staff canteens, delivery services for meals and pharmacies will remain open, as will gas stations, railway stations, banks, post offices, Hotels, public administration and social facilities.Also workshops for the means of transport can remain open.Entry into Switzerland is drastically restricted to the boundary, introduced controls.To support the cantons in the hospitals, in terms of logistics and in the area of security, the Federal Council has approved the use of up to 8000 members of the army. The civil protection is offered.The Federal Council continues to call on all citizens: “keep your distance can save lives!”The Federal Council dispensed with for the time being lock to a General output. The spread of the Coronavirus is from the curb, he has tightened rules for the contact. Groups of more than five passenger buses of 100 Swiss francs per Person threaten.Employers in the construction industry and in the industry are also required, the recommendations of the Federal government to Hygiene and to the distance to keep. Companies that do not comply should be closed.The economy gets more money: With 32 billion Swiss francs, the Federal Council decides on probably the biggest economic stimulus package of Swiss history. A total of about 40 billion francs are available.