Starts in August, and the “y” offers the economic forecast for month. The experts answer the questions, what will happen to the dollar / ruble exchange rate as changes in world oil prices, which is inflation and how will the dollar and the Euro on the world currency market.1. What will be the rate of the ruble to the dollar?2. What is inflation?3.What will be the price of oil?4. What will be the Euro-dollar exchange rate?Sergey Romanchuk, head of the dealing center of Metallinvestbank, President ACI Russia:Photo: Sergey Kiselev, Коммерсантъ1. I think the possible rise of the dollar to RUB 75-77 This growth is seasonal due to the conversion and dividend payments, as well as some recovery of imports. However, the higher dollar will not go, and later, the ruble may strengthen again later, up to the level of 70.2. Annual inflation is likely to be in the region of 3%, the factors are mainly news — weak economic growth and a relatively stable exchange rate.3. The oil will be in the range of $35-50 per barrel, as consumption growth is limited in re the quarantine. On the other hand, and the fall is unlikely to happen, as prospects are clear: vaccines are ready and the final stage of the test, a mask mode, the mass testing gives confidence that the Apocalypse will not happen.4. The Euro will be at the level of 1.17 to 1.25. The Euro is likely to continue growth in the framework started in July dollar weakening due to internal and external problems of the United States, primarily by confrontation with China, which somewhat hinders the reserve status of the dollar. Attempt to limit China’s ability to dispose of its reserves in US dollars could seriously shake the status of international currency, and investors look at other alternatives.Vasily Solodkov, Director of the Banking Institute HSE:Photo: Alexander Natruskin / RIA novosti1 an. The growth trend of the dollar will continue, and it will be 73-75 rubles/$. As for the ruble, as the price of oil will affect the aggravation of the situation in relations between the US and China is the main factor, but also decrease energy demand.2. Summer, people go on holiday, no money, prices of seasonal products are reduced, so, most likely, inflation will not be. If not zero, after June’s 0.2% of all possible deflation. It’s not very good, the economic situation is very difficult.3. Amid the scandal of the U.S. China may fall in demand and falling oil prices. Corridor you can do whatever you like: even down to $40 per barrel of Brent, though still below, it’s pointless. Importantly, this is not yet critical. It will be bad when the “trump our” will change to “Nenashev….”.4. After level $of 1.17 per Euro in late July, the dollar could begin to strengthen after Europe adopted significant packages of measures to mitigate the government. Maybe it’s rate of $1.14–1.15 per Euro, but about is roulette in such a short period of time.Igor Shibanov, analyst of financial markets, “Sberbank First”:Photo: from personal archive of Igor Шибанова1. After level 73 rbl./$ was broken, opened a direct path to 75 rubles./$. 73-75 rubles./$ — a quite reasonable range for August 2020. There are two main factors for the well-being of the ruble:A) Today to the Central Bank the economy is more important of course.B) August is “current month” turned into a financial superstition. In August there is always an increased demand for currency on the part of corporations, and from the population.2. The inflation rate will rise by 0.25% in August. It will give about a 3.5% annual inflation in the normal range.3. Oil rose in may, based on subjective sentiment of the market in the hope of a happy future. Oil rose almost no pullbacks or corrections, but to overcome the $45 per barrel still failed. Now set the opposite direction to $40 per barrel. Therefore, the range for August — $40-44 per barrel or even $38-42 per barrel.4. Almost two months the pair EUR/USD was locked in the hallway 1,1300 by 1.1450. Critical to break the bar of 1.15 was hard, but it happened. The 27 EU countries came to an agreement regarding economic measures to overcome the effects of coronavirus, while the fed continues to pump the market with new dollars, and the US recovery in question. So was the start of sales of the dollar. Now area of 1.14–1,15 turned into good support for the August growth to the level of 1.21. The trading range 1,15–1,21 be a lot wider than in any previous months of the year. Will greatly increase and volatility. But the Euro stepped a notch up in August will not hand over their positions.Anton Pokatovich economist “BCS Premier”:Photo: “BKS the Prime Minister”1. In August the ruble will retain the tendency to moderate the weakening rate will be formed in the range of 71.5–74 RUB/$. Weakening to 75 and below with the deterioration, for example, background of the sanctions on Russia also not excluded. The main risk for the ruble exchange rate remains geopolitics — sanction rhetoric against Russia may tighten with the approach of elections in the United States. In favor of the weakening of the ruble will continue to perform well as factors such as a further weakening of the current account and the motion vector of the key rate.2. In favor of a moderate acceleration of growth of consumer prices in the near future may be restrained recovery in consumer demand and the return of many companies to the standard formats work. Also in favor of some increase in inflationary market conditions in August will be and the effect is “weak” base last year. At the same time a good factor productivity may increase disinflationary pressure, keeping thus accelerated growth of food inflation. Expect inflation in August is 3.6% to 3.8%.3. For ��the tog meeting of OPEC+ oil exporters mitigated the quotas reduce its oil — production countries-participants of the transaction will increase by approximately 2 million barrels./day since August. This may result in a correction in oil prices towards $40 and below. To sustainable growth of oil can move closer to the middle of autumn. In August, oil prices can be between $38-41 per barrel.4. The achievement of the EU agreement on the establishment of a Fund of €750 billion to combat the impact of the pandemic and approval of new seven-year EU budget has had a short-term support to the European currency. However, there remains the fundamental weakness of the Euro. In these circumstances, in August, the Euro-dollar exchange rate, according to our estimates, will be formed in the range of $1.13–1.14 per Euro.