Starts in June, and the “y” offers its economic forecast for month. The experts answer the questions, what will happen to the dollar / ruble exchange rate as changes in world oil prices, which is inflation and how will the dollar and the Euro on the world currency market.1. What will be the exchange rate?2. What is inflation?3. What will be the price of oil?4. What will be the Euro-dollar exchange rate?Yaroslav Lissovolik, head of analytical Department of the Department of global markets Sberbank:Photo: Alexander Koryak, Коммерсантъ1. The ruble is expected 72 RUB/$. It plays the role of a global strengthening of the dollar in world markets against the background of the departure from risk by investors, especially in the context of increasing contradictions between China and the United States.2. Expect to see inflation at 0.2% in June and 3.3% in annual terms. A key factor is the weakness of demand, and this factor carries deflationary in nature, which inhibits the growth of consumer prices in the foreseeable future.3. I think Brent will trade at $35 per barrel. Here you can talk about the fact that a key factor holding back the recovery in prices at the moment is the weak demand in the world economy and continuing restrictions on the demand in connection with the current crisis, the economic downturn and measures taken to combat the epidemic.4. The Euro/dollar forecast at the level of 1.08, here played by the same reasons as in the case of the exchange rate of the ruble/dollar is, once again, the strengthening of the dollar on the world market and risk minimization investors amid the tension of relations between the U.S. and China.Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of strategy IK “Finam”:1. The ruble at the end of the month will be in the range of 71-73 RUB/$. A slight increase compared to the end of may is that June 19 will be a meeting of the Central Bank, which is likely to lower the refinancing rate, besides the part of foreign investors will want to lock its position in OFZs, which will lead to an outflow of funds from Russia.2. Compared to the April inflation will fall to 0.4–0.5%. On the one hand, the country gradually coronavirus is selected from the scrapes, but most importantly, the real incomes of the population, to put it mildly, not growing. Can we have a little and will play in consumer demand, but the preconditions for significant growth of prices there. Plus the exchange rates have stabilized, if we talk about imports. I see no reason for inflation growth, especially in the summer when it is traditionally low.3. The price of oil is likely to overcome resistance at $36 and by the end of June may overcome the bar $40 per barrel of Brent. We see discussion of oil from the middle East, the dialogue, the reduction is extended. Influenced by the feeling that in the long run can turn the price growth, because increasest oil production during the restart of the economy will be complicated.4. The most likely course compared to the end of may will not change and will be in the region of us $1.1/€. No reason for major changes there. The Euro should podobratjsya, but given the programs that prepare the Europeans, it will retain its position.Alexey Vedev, head of the laboratory for financial studies, economic policy Institute, named Yegor Gaidar:Photo: Dmitry Dukhanin, Коммерсантъ1. Assuming the ruble exchange rate in June will be in the range of 71-73 RUB/$. This level corresponds to the current balance of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market, with the participation of Bank of Russia.2. Unlike past crises, the inflation threat is very low. Factors several. Due to low consumer demand. Further, the significant reduction of prices of manufacturers. Finally, the stabilization of the ruble. As a result, inflation in June will amount to 0,2–0,25%.3. The price of Brent crude oil will fluctuate in the range of $32-36 per barrel. This level Podgoritsa gradual exit of some countries from the pandemic, however, the volatility in the oil market will continue.4. The Euro-dollar exchange rate will remain in the range of 1.08 to 1.12. It seems (at least, I hope) that in June business activity in the US and the Eurozone will increase and the specified level is a kind of equilibrium. In any case, I do not expect a movement of the indicator.Alexander Golovtsov, independent financial analyst:Photo: courtesy of UK “URALSIB”1. The ruble is likely stabiliziruemost about 70 rubles./$ after the may hysterical rebound. Western speculators since mid-April, “ate” a huge amount of Russian currency to buy up BFL and other local instruments. The Finance Ministry has already implemented the plan of placing of government securities in the second quarter. A rebound effect of oil is likely to be offset by a sharp reduction in sales of foreign currency by the Central Bank. Negative surprises in the form of a second wave of coronavirus or a further escalation between the US and China is able to deploy the ruble weakening already in June. But it is more likely that it will be a story for the third quarter.2. According to the latest reports Rosstat, he will try to make the bosses more moderate values of inflation. Apparently, there is a political solution to the deep reduction of the key rate and the official inflation statistics should give some justification. I would venture to suggest that the official growth of consumer price index for June will remain within 0.2% and may even be zero.3. The cost of a barrel of Brent can seek equilibrium in the neighborhood of $40. Data on the recovery of consumption in developed countries will encourage speculators throughout the month. At the same time OPEC+ will continue to feed the market more rainbow�� promises about cuts in production until the renewal of the may till the end of the year. However, this news is completely expected, so the impact will be moderate. At the end of June near $40 a barrel we will see no reduction, but an increase in the number of drilling rigs in the United States that will impede further growth of prices.4. In the pair dollar/Euro look a little preferable chances of the European currency. Mainly due to the inertia in global risk appetite, aggravated in may to an unprecedented degree. Statistics on the recovery of business activity in developed countries will probably still support it, though very sparingly, this speculative optimism the greater part of June. So the Euro is unlikely to be released outside of 1.12. On the other hand, negative surprises in trade wars or a new viral exacerbations is able to quickly bring the rate back to the level of 1.08. Although that is the scenario for the third quarter.The group “Direct speech”
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