the savings Bank has modeled a worst-case scenario of a crisis with the dollar at $ 100, but believes that this will not happen
Moscow-Live.ru / Akishin Vyacheslav
On the morning of 18 March, the dollar against the ruble on the Moscow stock exchange grew by 5% compared to the previous auction closing – up to 79.22 ruble. The last time at this level, the American currency was traded in February 2016. But this is not the limit for the fall of the ruble.
the savings Bank has modelled three possible scenarios for the economic crisis in Russia on the background of the spread of the pandemic coronavirus. The stress scenario assumes a drop in oil prices to $ 20, the growth rate of the dollar to $ 100 and various macroeconomic developments: the gaps of the chains, the stop of the enterprises.
“But this is an extreme scenario. Worse scenario we have not yet invented, while the setting gives us puzzles even absolutely critical option to consider,” the words of the Chairman of the Board of Bank Herman Gref, “Vedomosti”.
When he says that even with the hard version, the savings Bank will survive the crisis without external support and maintain profitability without “no dramatic effects” for customers and “acceptable” losses. “We have identified the names of all customers who have problems can occur in this case, and work with each of our clients to establish a plan for support, assistance”, – said Gref. If necessary, the Bank can attract about 3 trillion rubles of liquidity and in this sense the Bank is the beste prepared for the crisis than anyone else, he added.
Gref admitted that the current crisis was much deeper than it seemed at first, but “all governments are actively involved in the fight against the crisis”. According to the economist, in the coming weeks a wave of panic to end.
Earlier, the Central Bank and the government announced measures to support the economy due to the spread of coronavirus and volatility in global financial and commodity markets. To support the economy and citizens, the government will form anti-crisis Fund in the amount of 300 billion rubles, the Central Bank allowed banks to lend and restructure loans to companies in the field of transport and tourism without compromising the assessment of their financial position, the month will be canceled restrictions in the cities for transport and trade networks introduced a green channel for imports of goods and so on.
earlier, rating Agency Standard&Poor’s predicted that in 2020 the world economy will be in recession. According to him, China’s GDP will start to recover in the second half of 2020 and will grow for the year by 2.7 to 3.2%. The Eurozone economy will contract by 0.5% and 1.0% in 2020, analysts said. The decline in the economy in the US can be up to 0.5%.
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are also expected to reduce GDP in the US and the Eurozone in the first half of the year. In the second half waiting for the start of the recovery. Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe that the growth of the global economy will slow to 0.9%, Goldman Sachs forecasts growth of 1.25%.
Analytical credit rating Agency (ACRA) warned about the possibility of financial crisis in Russia. An index of financial stress for the Russian Federation, which calculates the Agency reached a level of 3.12 points, surpassing the threshold value of 2.5 points. This index measures the closeness of the financial system to the crisis, the level of 2.5 points – the boundary of the system in this state.