the Program of preferential mortgage for the Russians continues to grow. Recently the President announced a proposal to increase the amount of the loan at 6.5% and 8 to 12 million rubles in Moscow, St.-Petersburg, the Moscow and Leningrad regions, with 3 to 6 million — in other regions. Thus, the program enters housing comfort-class, but the “business”. Now preparing amendments to reduce the initial payment on the loan from 20% to 15%. They are under negotiation with the Russian government and will soon enter into force.

But we should not delude ourselves: preferential mortgage imposed not in order to make life easier for the Russians to borrowers. The government saved the banks and developers — and he almost succeeded. Housing loans at a rate of 6.5% did not allow the market to break through the bottom. However, the demand for apartments, and mortgages and for apartments in the mortgage, has its limits. About it on online discussion “mortgages and housing: development after the crisis,” said representatives of the real estate market.

“Customers have become much more cautious: they still make requests and even occasionally pass pre-scoring (evaluation of solvency), but in the end refuse to submit a full bid because of “irrelevance” in the next 3-6 months”, — said the head of the Department of development of mortgage lending in a large Bank Artem Ivanov. The proportion of such “refuseniks, according to experts, in a matter of months grew approximately two times. But officials scratching their heads: how could whet the interest of citizens?

Recall that the credit agreements at a rate to 6.5% should be concluded before November 1, 2020, that is, the decision-making remains very little time. But in order to use this program, you need to pay quite a considerable down payment — at least 20%. Well, that is, even at the cost of housing is 3 million rubles, the borrower shall immediately make at least 600 thousand rubles. If to speak about Moscow, these figures should be multiplied at least twice: buy an apartment in the capital is cheaper 6 million difficult. Even if you find housing for such a “democratic” price, the first payment will be a minimum of 1.2 million rubles.

— the initial contribution and the complexity of its accumulation stood on the agenda for a long time. But of particular relevance is the question of initial contributions purchased in this year, — said Vice-President of the Association of banks of Russia Alexey Volokhov. — Citizens who managed to keep their incomes under the regime of remote work, were interested in special state programs, and acquisition of housing mortgage rate that is significantly below market. Preferential rates always stimulate pent-up demand, but in this case the big role is played by the fact that many people triesodilis home for a long time and may have been spontaneous decisions about the need to improve living conditions. However, not all were and there is a sufficient amount for a down payment.

According to Baidukova, the period of accumulation of the contribution to the average Russian family takes 3 to 5 years. It is particularly difficult to accumulate a downpayment for young families, which both have to rent housing accommodation. And their monthly expenses, which include savings for a down payment and paying apartment rent comparable and often exceed the payment on your mortgage, which could be.

Experts expect that will adversely affect the formation of personal savings and enter next year income tax on Bank interest for the amounts that exceed 1 million rubles. These are the amounts that citizens accumulate for a down payment.

an Essential tool for some borrowers is the parent capital, which can be used to pay off mortgage principal or interest. With this year’s maternity capital is paid already for the first child, so the number of families who will be able to use it, is expanding. However, the maternity capital is only a small part of the cost of purchased housing. In addition, the program operates only in new buildings and, therefore, the value of the apartment need to add funds for the subsequent repair.

to Lure citizens in the current conditions, reducing the amount of the initial payment on a mortgage. That, in theory, soon will be announced. But why not reduce the first payment is substantial — not to 15% and to 10%? Until the end of 2017, the share of loans with an initial contribution of 10% was made in Russia not more than 5% of the total issuance. Lend to borrowers in certain circumstances. For example, mortgages with low initial payment was issued to salary clients or employees of the public sector. In good standing with the banks were families that already had good housing, selling it is not planned, and just wanted to move to a more spacious apartment. But in 2018, the Bank of Russia began to pay special attention to the initial payment, and now the share of borrowers with a 10 percent contribution does not exceed 1 percent. The logic is simple: the smaller the initial amount is, the unreliable client, and therefore, the higher the risk that he will not be able to pay the mortgage.

I wouldn’t equate a low initial contribution to the risk of default on the loan — the last rather the behavioral characteristics of the borrower, — says Alexey Volokhov. But I don’t expect the banks will now be widely to issue mortgage loans with down payment less than 10%, except in the cases of ISP��litvania of the parent capital. 10% is lower than that provided by state programs — and therefore, under the state program, such a loan does not fall. Therefore, we recommend that borrowers focus on the initial payment of own means not less than 15% and in any case not to resort to obtaining loans for himself the down payment.

Let’s calculate how to change the amount of down payment when it is reduced to 15%. For homes valued $ 3 million first payment will be 450 thousand, for the 6-million-apartment — 900 thousand rubles. Yes, it turns out a little less. But in any case to raise such a sum for a few months may not all.

the Obvious way to solve the problem is to extend the state program of preferential crediting. Now in the corridors of power there is talk of the extension of the program until the end of this year. State Duma deputies even asked the Chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina to extend preferential mortgage for the entire 2021. What happens, is unclear. One thing is clear: affordable housing for the majority of Russians will be soon — even with a “soft” state programs.