it’s been over a year since the administration launched a campaign trump “maximum pressure” against Iran, and almost two years since Secretary of state Mike Pompeo put forward to the Tehran 12 requirements to change the behavior of the Iranian regime.
For Iran, the campaign “maximum pressure” certainly turned out to be a powerful blow. The economy is in recession, inflation is rising, and the Iranian Rial devalued more and more. The biggest Iranian banknote of 100 thousand rials — costs only $ 2,50 at the official rate and even less on the black market, writes in The National Interest, the American Iran expert Michael Rubin.
As foreign policy and defense have become tools in a political battle in Congress is enhanced by criticism, mainly from Democrats, Iranian politics trump. However, those who insist that “maximum pressure” will never bring a result to have forgotten recent history.
In 1981, the first day of Reagan’s presidency is “maximum pressure” forced Iran to free seized the Embassy in 1979 of American hostages. In 1988, the revolutionary leader Ayatollah Khomeini due to external economic pressure agreed to a truce in the Iran-Iraq war, which he first proposed six years before.
meanwhile, the absence of any strategy of destruction from within the Islamic revolutionary guard Corps (IRGC) is the main drawback of the current campaign “maximum pressure”. Despite the fact that the US government considers the IRGC a terrorist organization that threatens the interests of America and its allies throughout the Middle East, the Islamic revolutionary guard Corps, the main focus is the internal situation in Iran. In 2007 the then head of the IRGC Mohammad Ali Jafari stated that the Iranian public, and not us forces — the main threat to the regime.
as long as the IRGC remains the samestrong and well-managed organization, you should not expect any radical policy change or the change of political regime in the Islamic Republic. Washington should do everything to provoke controversy and to create fissures within the IRGC.
In the framework of the campaign “maximum pressure” still remain numerous sanctions loopholes. Fortunately, these problems can be solved so that pressure on the Iranian government without hurting Iranian citizens, most of whom suffer from the clerical regime.
it Should be noted that defiance of international sanctions, the Iranian government is investing heavily in industry, which enhances the military capabilities of the country. For example, Iranian engineers have more than ten years working in the field of nanotechnology and, apparently, has made significant progress. Saeed Sarkar, the press Secretary of the headquarters of the Islamic Republic of nanotechnology, recently announced that currently, the domestic market is 610 products related to nanotechnology, and 15 sectors of the Iranian industry, among which are the pharmaceutical, construction, textile, automotive, oil, gas and petrochemical, use of nanotechnology. Sarkar also says that Iran has successfully exported nanotechnology in 45 countries.
Iranian development on carbon fiber, meanwhile, allowed the Islamic Republic to build a lighter and more sophisticated unmanned aerial vehicles and, possibly, more advanced centrifuges.
recently, an Iranian company with the support of the Iranian government engaged in mining of rare earth metals, many of which have a unique industrial application. If the Iranian government succeeds, it will be able not only to preserve increasingly scarce hard currency, but also to develop its own industrial capacity and more effective to resist the us sanctions.
Today, the United States is mainly concerned about the nuclear ambitions of the Islamic Republic and its desire to acquire ballistic missiles, but Iran’s industry is much broader and includes high-tech sector. It would be a mistake to ignore the Iranian niche industry, because they form the basis of asymmetric capabilities that the Iranian leadership would not hesitate to deploy, or to export in the future.