Now many people in addition to health care, and their fate is at work. Afraid of layoffs and wage cuts. What are your predictions, Alexander Lvovich? We are waiting for the “great depression” in the labour market?
Alexander Safonov Let’s not panic prematurely. Now we are at the beginning of rising unemployment.
In the first month of isolation employers used the mechanisms that have prevented mass layoffs. This so-called administrative leave when the employee is sent to them without pay.
This practice is known to us since 1990-ies, when there was a peak in the number of people placed on administrative leave, almost 4 million people. This procedure proved to be effective in 2008-2009. Then the enterprise, faced with temporary difficulties, chose not to lay people off, but for some time to send their “own beds”.
What’s today? I think after a month people who were in administrative leave, will be forced to begin to think about your future. If the situation with coronavirus delayed more than a month, then of course any personal inventory is not enough, and will need to issue layoff. Then we will see a second wave of rising unemployment.
But first you how do you evaluate? Anxiety?
Alexander Safonov With the understanding that it was not pronounced. That’s just the beginning.
For the month compared with the first quarter we saw an increase in unemployed by 250 thousand people. Let me remind you that Rosstat gave on the first quarter figure of 700 thousand registered unemployed. Today, the Minister of labor, was 950 thousand. These are the people that were sent without any means of livelihood on the street. Of course, each of a quarter of a million fired – this is a personal tragedy and a serious problem. But in the whole country is not so much.
But not enough. Moreover, it is only those who contacted the employment service. As a rule, does that only one in four lost their job. Yes, you say – this is just the beginning. What next?
Alexander Safonov Long simple companies accumulate debts, including on wages, on taxes. So sometimes it is easier to close a company than to deal with the consequences of the economic crisis. Probably in June we will see the beginning of this process.
of Course, will be released people. What’s next? This largely depends on the dynamics of the distribution of corona and the duration of the isolation. And state of health of the economy, of course.
If all goes according to the optimistic scenario, what kind of unemployment we see in the country?
Alexander Safonov In Russia today, about 70 million employees and 3.5 million��and unemployed taking into account those who didn’t go to the employment service. This is 5 percent of the workforce. Optimistic prediction: the number of unemployed by the end of the year will grow somewhere in the 1.5 million to 5 million. And it is about 7.3 percent.
And at worst case scenario?
Alexander Safonov Unemployment may reach 7 million people, 10.5 percent.
So what option are we prepare?
Alexander Safonov I Think, given the factors that we are working on the labour market: large employment in the public sector, the practice of enterprises, instead of layoffs to reduce costs for labor and personnel administrative leave, but will be implemented optimistic scenario.
That is to a greater extent will the scheme associated with the retention of the workforce by lowering wages. And the number of unemployed people we will grow to a maximum of 5-5,5 million people.
the decline in wages – too little joy. Although better than nothing. So much to despond it is not necessary?
Alexander Safonov to Despond it is not necessary. It will not help. But an easy life can’t promise anything. The decline in wages at this time will be more painful for people than in the 1990s and even in 2008 and 2009.
In the first case, the whole communal and social sphere including kindergartens, boarding houses of rest and sanatoriums, were on balance of the enterprises. And employees all this was done free of charge or with a big discount. That is, the people part of their income received in kind, which allowed them to accept reduced earnings.
Today, increased spending on payments for housing and communal services, there was still a lot of other paid services, for which people must pay. Increased tax burden on the property, if the property there are apartments, houses, villas and so on.
as for 2008-2009, then unemployment jumped sharply during the year, then fell sharply. Yes, and the problem arose from a small number of industries. It was mostly a financial crisis. Country with him fast enough to cope, because at the same time there were positive factors associated with the rising cost of our traditional export goods: oil, gas, metals.
That is today, employers will often not apply to layoffs and lower wages? And who it will affect “particularly painful”?
Alexander Safonov: Yes, I am sure that in the first place, the optimization will go the way of lower wages.
And now there is the experience of some, even large, companies that are considering wage cuts of up to 30 percent. And, the interesting, think about that even those companies that feel confident enough in the labor market. But here�� : if you can pay less why pay more.
an Island of stability, as always, in all periods will remain the public sector. It is the salaries of doctors, teachers, numerous employees who are busy with “the budget”. And this is 14 million people.
they Have employment at all would be more stable. Of course, there may be some layoffs, but they will not be fatal in nature and at times will differ from the commercial sector. Therefore, most likely, we will see a reduction of wages in the whole economy in the range of 10-15 percent.
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