the Fall in income in the period of coronaries forcing people to increasingly resort to borrowings, but not all have the ability to pay them off. Only for credit cards the rate of growth of overdue obligations from the beginning of the year was 110 times higher than for five months of 2019. The second half is unlikely to dramatically improve the situation and allow the Russians to get out of debt. After the partial lifting of the quarantine, many are forced once again to rush to the banks for new loans to maintain the standard of living of their families.
If at the beginning of 2020, the total volume of overdue debts, raised by the Russians on credit cards, was estimated at 125 billion rubles, in may, he came close to the level of 140 billion rubles. According to the Association of collectors of NAPCA and the KJV “Equifax”, growth of “bad” loans made up 11%, although last year over the same period of time, they barely exceed 0.1%. In other words, the growth of “delay” of “plastic” accelerated against the backdrop of a pandemic and isolation in 110 times.
According to head of analytical Department AMarkets Artem Deev, every month our compatriots are paying on debt is getting worse and worse. “In April the same credit history Bureau “Equifax” optimistically reported that the share of arrears on different credit products did not grow. On the contrary, the Russians gave loans more disciplined and tried not to admit of delay. However, by the end of may the situation changed dramatically. Mainly, the effect of the accumulation of debt. If in April the population was still short of money to pay for Bank payments, in may last savings were exhausted,” — said the expert.
According to the chief of Department of experts on the stock market “BCS” Basil Karpunina, pandemic coronavirus played another cruel joke with the users “credit card”. “Not all customers of banks have access to stable Internet, in order to repay the interest on the loans. This is especially noticeable in regions where restrictions on movement, he said. — In addition, many employers do not have time to prepare for the conditions of self-isolation. As a result, many workers got paid much later than assumed in the employment contract, and was not able to pay the loans on time, which led to the formation of new debt.”
a major role in the growth of overdue obligations, according to the head of Department of analytical researches of the Higher school of financial management Mikhail Kogan, played by the psychological factor. Because credit cards often have no specific target, their preparation does not require confirmation in the form of a Deposit on an apartment, car or other property. “When man loses work or facing significant decline in revenues, the need to pay debts at “credit card” for it undoubtedly has much lower priority than the purchase of drugs and food,” — says the expert.
Experts see no prerequisites for a significant improvement of the debt of the population in the second half of the year. According to Rosstat, in the first quarter of the real incomes of Russians decreased by only 0.2%. In the second quarter, which was the brunt of coronaries, falling incomes at risk of becoming landslide: the range of expert estimates of this index ranges from -6% to -17%. And it is already obvious that before the end of the year, no recovery of the income of the question. According to the forecast development Centre HSE, in 2020, real income in the baseline scenario of development of events will fall by 8%, and at negative 12%. The ability to return to pre-crisis level will be at least two years.
Accordingly, after the easing of the quarantine regime in Russia in June, citizens have again applied for loans. During the first decade of the first month of summer, according to the Bank, the retail portfolio of domestic banks grew by 0.3% (for the whole of may — only 0.2%). And this surge in lending activity and then threatens to turn into a new massive defaults on debts. As suggested by the head of the Luxembourg office of the consulting group KRK Group Nikita Ryabinin, “in the I half of this year, the growth rate of the share “bad” debts on credit cards could reach 15-20%, but was less. Re-flash the spread of coronavirus will make this level quite within reach”.
