If you compare today’s volume of export deliveries of the past years during the same period, they fell slightly below the level of 2016 (44,36 billion cubic meters), while being higher in 2014 and 2015 (35 and 34.4 billion cubic meters, respectively), when also there was talk about the loss of “Gazprom” share in the European market.
If you look at the statistics for the countries in Western Europe more likely in the 1st quarter of this year decreased supply of pipeline gas from Russia to Germany with 15.2% in the 1st quarter of 2019 to 11.7 billion cubic meters, which provided more than a third of the decline in Russian gas exports to Europe. In equity ratio is greatly decreased shipments to the UK from 3.35 to 1.5 billion cubic meters and Finland – from 0.9 to 0.45 billion cubic meters. In some countries, for example, in the Netherlands – the supply has increased from 1.98 to 2.8 billion cubic meters.
In the countries of Central Europe, Russian gas exports in Q1 fell from 9 billion cubic meters in 2019 to 7.76 billion cubic meters in this. Greatly reduced it is only in the Czech Republic and Bulgaria, almost doubled, to 0.84 and 0.48 billion cubic meters. It is noteworthy that Poland, which heralded the diversification of energy supplies and the refusal of the Russian gas purchases was not reduced and even slightly increased.
yet the decline in exports is 20% too large so as not to draw attention to him. It is caused by several factors, but not the displacement of Russian gas to the European market. In the first place, was affected by quarantine restrictions due to the epidemic of the coronavirus, which has seriously reduced the power consumption around the world. In addition to them, played a role – the warm winter in Europe and gas reserves, made because of concerns the failure of negotiations on the transit of Ukraine and Russia at the end of last year. On the latter now often forgotten, but in January there was a forecast that the export of Gazprom to Europe will fall because of record gas volumes in storage. And finally, falling demand led to falling prices, which with pipeline gas began to compete successfully liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is often sold by traders on the brink or below profitability. Their impatience can understand, the storage of LNG is expensive, besides during prolonged storage it spoils. As soon as the market goes to recovery, prices will begin to rise and competition for Russian pipeline gas will be quite difficult.
“the Demand for imported gas in Europe has good prospects not only for recovery from the downturn that took place during the period of quarantine restrictions, but also for growth,” – said the Deputy head of the national energy security Fund Alexei Grivach. The expert said that this is due to a drop in domestic production in the EU, and programmatic shift away from coal and the atom in some countries in the block. In this regard, no doubt!first, the volumes of pipeline gas supplies from Russia will return to level 200+ billion cubic meters. The only question is how fast it will happen. It depends on many factors. Regarding the share of Russian gas on the European market considering LNG it remains stable at a high level, said Grivach.