Oh, how terrible to live! Even worse! Just awful! These are the feelings that arise when you are introduced to current forecasts concerning the prospects of falling of the Russian economy. And the author of these lines have to do it regularly.
Over the past few days on the head interested in the question just struck a flurry of macroeconomic forecasts of how the collapse of the GDP (gross domestic product, if someone does not know) of Russia in 2020. One nightmarish other. Rating Agency S&P would spell the fall of the Russian economy to 4.8 percent, the Institute of international Finance (IIF) – 5.1%, IMF – 5.5% Bank of America – 5.6%. Well, that’s all, convince us celebrationist, the “registered as a foreign agent”, the stooges “the Washington regional Committee”. Went near them and representatives of the “fifth column”, the economists of the “Liberal mission” (Guriev, Aleksashenko, Sonin) – minus 5.7 percent.
But, paradoxically, the predictions of our people from the economic and financial agencies is not something that is not far behind “enemy”, and often surpass them. The Minister of economic development Maxim Reshetnikov expects a decline of Russia’s GDP this year to 4.5-5%, head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina – 4-6%, and the head of the chamber Alexei Kudrin – on 7-8%. The last figure displays Kudrin leaders according to the degree of pessimism of the forecasts among all. But it is! I have no doubt that tomorrow or the day after, there are think tanks that are prophesied to us in the fall and more than 8%.
Oh, how terrible to live! Because of all these faceless and abstract, at first glance, the numbers are very real life challenges each of us (well, or at least the absolute majority). There is no reason to doubt the realistic evaluation of Maxim Reshetnikova that every day the isolation of the domestic economy is losing 100 billion rubles. While the decline in GDP is the reduction of jobs, reduced wages, falling incomes, increased credit bondage: all things with which almost every Russian family or have already faced or will inevitably face in the near future.
But with all that, let’s not be afraid, and pay attention to all this an avalanche of macroeconomic forecasts is one worse than the other. I say this not because questioning the qualifications of the forecasters. On the contrary, I deeply respect and understand that by releasing these estimates, they are doing their job. But I responsibly declare: no forecast today by definition can not be reliable. “Thanks” to the coronavirus and the decline of oil, there are too many variables in the current equation, by definition of GDP, and none of them is not clear.
How much longer will the Russian regime of the pandemic, isolation, and, consequently, economic pause? How long will it last in the surrounding nas the world? How smooth or sharp will exit this mode and how quickly the full capacity of the economy will work? When open borders for people and goods? When you authorize flights and travel? As it will increase the demand for hydrocarbons? How OPEC will deal+ 1 may? What will happen to oil prices?
Neither one of these questions there is no exact answer. They do not know nor Kudrin and Nabiullina, Putin has a trump, nor the head of the UN head who, with all due respect to all of the above. And without knowledge of these parameters, or at least understand possible trends of their changes, any macroeconomic forecasts GDP is absolutely meaningless. Their value, relatively speaking, does not exceed the cost of the paper on which they are printed. And their forecasts-that strictly speaking can not be called; rather, the Tarot coronavirus. Therefore, we strongly suggest distinguished audience not to pay attention – at least in the coming weeks – these crazy races forecasters, passing on a daily basis under the motto “who ominously prophesied”.
Is that bookmakers, now languishing from the lack of sporting events, I can advise to include the race of economic forecasters in their line: someone must guess the final score and enriched. No wonder that the bookmaking business was originally included among the backbone industries. Later, however, it have been dropped.