Coronavirus when the ruble collapsed

it is Possible long to list the American and European markets, whose indexes at the same time suffered a record collapse. It can be stated that the auctions in the Russian stock market closed the biggest drop since April, 2018: the indices have fallen by 3.5–5.2 percent. All this is just the outward signs of a powerful evil that knows when to be overcome and who knows what will result.

“We are seeing the panic over powerlessness in the face of the epidemic, — says senior analyst “BKS the Prime Minister” Sergey Suverov. Markets, being under extreme stress, waiting for new stimulus measures from the authorities, but it is not obvious that the latter will put out the financial fire. Coronavirus increases the risk of a global recession, and the Russian market in addition to this factor pushes the geopolitical background. In particular, the worsening situation in Syria and the threat of new sanctions. The scenario of growth of the dollar to 70 roubles it is real”.

the Unpredictable — that’s bad, says financial analyst FxPro Alexander Kuptsikevich. According to him, the collapse of the dollar-denominated RTS index (the main indicator of the Russian stock market) more than 7% is hardly a reassessment of the prospects, rather, it is panic sale. Such in the recent past were several, and they all were provoked by fears of Western sanctions. But now as we see a sale on all world trading platforms, the analogy with the crisis of 2008. Then RTS felt for the bottom, only losing 80% relative to their peak values. Courses of American and European currencies against the ruble jumped 50% from the lows of the summer. In the case of a further fall at the same rate the dollar until the end of 2020 and will soar to 90 rubles, euros up to 100 rubles.

“of Course, this forecast is extreme and unlikely. Monetary authorities in many countries give the dynamics of the markets attention, and probably the problem will “fill in” the money supply as before. It gives a chance for a rebound in the markets, and it is likely that the Euro may slip close to 75 rubles, and the dollar — above 68. ESLand these marks will be passed, the stabilization of the Russian currency is likely only near 77-80 per Euro and 70 to the dollar,” — says Kuptsikevich.

Not all analysts, however, are in panic. No tragedy what is happening there, says the head of IAC “Alpari” Alexander Razuvaev. According to him, the beginning of the collapse of the stock markets will play in the end is not destructive, but corrective role. So by “plausible” force majeure excuse, he will reduce the size of the hyperinflationary bubble, formed in the world today, to a relatively safe level. As for expected losses to global GDP in 2020 is $1.1 trillion (1.3 percent), there is nothing critical Razuvaev in these figures, sees. Speaking on oil, Brent crude may even move up to $60-80 per barrel — if the virus will spread to oil-producing countries and affected the supply chain. Expected against this background, the sharp jump of the prices for gold and other defensive assets will be in the hands of Russia.

the Overcapitalization of the markets has now reached a critical point, agree colleague Razuvaeva, senior analyst Anna Bodrova. Everything began to cost too much: assets, oil, indices. In conditions of weakly growing economies, more so could not continue. Enough was one spark — in this case, the topic of coronavirus, — all broke out. The Russian stock market has room to fall, the potential for sales there is still 2-5% accurate, soothes Bodrov. And Sergei Zhavoronkov, senior researcher, Institute for economic policy. Gaidar recalls the story of the Ebola 2014-2015: the mortality rate was not 2%, like the coronavirus, and above 50%, but the downturn in the world economy is not led.