Global consumption is shifting towards environmental goods. Pandemic coronavirus will only accelerate this process, and Europe and other developed countries will act as its locomotive. Such developments will lead to radical restructuring of production and increased competition. Russia is ready to change better than others, if only to use its abilities. Climate adjustment — the material “Tape.ru”.
In 2020 the nature reminded the humanity about itself so as not reminded for a long time. The warmest in the entire history of observations winter let and pleased residents of the European part of Russia, but was only a warm-up. Epidemic COVID-2019 and the subsequent global crisis, which compares with the great depression, made it clear that the current model of the world economy is obsolete and cannot respond to the challenges of the XXI century.
both Russian And international experts agree on one thing — the situation hits the globalization, that is integration of economic activities of countries and continents. The gap of supply chains lead to the shutdown of many businesses, it became obvious difficulty of a rapid establishment of production critical equipment.
But before the mers system was seriously ill and could not solve many problems, including crucial environmental.
the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris agreement taken to limit greenhouse gases, worked very health. USA is the first economy in the world — did not participate in any of the treaties, and Russia, like many developed countries, performed only the liability of the first stage of the Kyoto Protocol, which lasted until 2012. The reason for such action on the surface: someone who cares about the environment inevitably suffers in economic terms. Production becomes more expensive and the country is losing the competition in the global market.
In 2017 total carbon emissions amounted to 37 billion tons, of which oil, coal and gas gave 32,54 billion.
According to the International energy Agency (IEA), emissions of fossil fuels in 2018 rose by 1.7 percent, while in 2019 reached 33.3 billion tonnes (plus 0.6 percent). The situation looks scary, after all, to the end of the century to keep temperature rise within 1.5 degrees, it follows by 2030 to reduce emissions by 45 percent, and by 2050 to achieve carbon neutrality.
the Culprits for the lack of progress began developing countries, primarily China and India, because developed — USA, Europe, Japan — reduce or limit their emissions even without the any obligations. The bias is so obvious that in the near future in the fight for the climate is clearly followed by abrupt change.
And they already begin — The EU approved the so-called green strategy.
In the first ten years, the region will spend a trillion euros on environmental projects. Part of the initiative began duties on goods with a high carbon footprint, what looks like an obvious threat to China. The epidemic will make adjustments, but, most likely, will only accelerate the process. After any crisis — the best time for radical change. Think so, and the largest German companies were asked to combine the solution to these two problems.
the world’s Major companies try to keep up. Microsoft promises over 30 years to compensate for all the harm that the company caused environmental 1975. The largest buyer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Singapore’s Pavilion Energy began to demand a report about the carbon footprint of purchased fuel. The government pension Fund of Norway (GPFG), the largest sovereign Fund in the world, refused to invest in production that are harmful to the climate. Are even Russian oil.
co-Owner of LUKOIL Leonid Fedun said that in 2020, the company’s Board of Directors approves climate strategy, whose goal is zero emissions by 2050. To do this, the company is expanding its plans for solar and wind generation.
there is No doubt that ignoring environmental issues countries will soon have to adapt to new realities for the sake of investment and the largest markets — the European and American.
Another 8.4 percent were other industries burn fossil fuels. Agriculture provides 11 percent of the emissions, in this case we are talking about methane. The remaining volume is calculated as the sum of emissions of volatile gases in the production, degradation of soil and forests, industrial processes, fuel for vessels and other losses. Companies that will reduce emissions, will receive a significant competitive advantage.
In Russia, the situation also understand. Speaking about the risks for the energy industry, energy Minister Alexander Novak noted that it is important to take into account the global trend to promote green agenda. The head of “RUSNANO” Anatoly Chubais claims that Russia should go the way of real cuts in emissions to avoid a critical fall in exports. The world Bank also reminded that the Russian economy vulnerable to the structural consequences of initiatives related to climate change.
it would Seem to depend on the export of hydrocarbons Russia, the situation looks threatening. However, just as Russia has hardly a chance to fit into this system as comfortable as possible — with the least risk, the least changes and at the same time, with the greatest benefit for themselves. Environmental problems in this country — no wonder they ��consecrated a national project, the implementation of which it was proposed to send four trillion rubles.
However, the emission of greenhouse gases is only part of the green issues, and not just in this area the country has good prospects.
the volume of carbon dioxide emissions, Russia is in fourth place in the world, although if you combine the EU countries (3.5 billion tons) — the fifth. As of 2017 she made 1,764 billion tons. Ahead of her China (10.9 billion), USA (5.1 billion) and India (2.5 billion). Given the structure of production is a very good indicator.
the fact that leaders on emissions per capita are oil and gas producing countries — Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and the USA.
Russia is among the three largest in both areas of production, but it produces significantly less greenhouse gases per resident.
And there is no paradox here. The thing is, what fuels are used in the economy. The most harmless is considered to be natural gas, followed by oil and coal. In 2017 the use of coal led to emissions of carbon dioxide in the amount of 14,6 billion tons; oil — 11.4 billion; natural gas 6.7 billion. In Russia in 2017 for gas were 796 million tons of emissions; oil 322 million; coal — 388 million. In the United States — 1437 million, 1981 1324 million and million tons respectively; in the European Union — 891 million, 1335 million and 918 million tonnes. In China, the picture looks terrible — 488 million, 1351 million and 7470 million. In India maximum bad gas 74 million, 579 million and 1597 million tons.
So, of all the countries with the highest emissions of Russia by a large margin looks very green, more than any other passed gas.
to catch up with her competitors will have to spend a lot of money and go for the structural changes, after all, just refuse to fuel the energy and heating is still needed. For example: in Germany, a world leader in the field of wind energy — nearly 30 percent of housing continue heating diesel fuel. And wind turbines here will not help.
to improve performance, and only to continue. Technology of oil extraction is that in the process of produced associated gas, large quantities of which are burned. In 2012 in Russia thus destroyed 35 billion cubic meters, and in 2016 and 21 billion. In 2018, the world Bank named the country’s leader in gas flaring reduction. In 2020, the Russian companies pay penalties for burning more than five percent of gas produced. The energy Ministry in January proposed to raise this figure to 2.5%, that is, to reduce emissions even twice.
��Onet talk about the triumphal procession of electric vehicles, many forget that first, their sales in Europe are growing due to subsidies and secondly, carbon footprint of them is not zero.
Production of electric cars less environmentally friendly than petrol cars. And in the U.S., as scientists have calculated, emissions from operation process is formed not less than 100 and not 10 times, but only 2.5 times. On the background of the crisis opportunities in European countries will be less and the desire to help people to purchase expensive cars, then GMT will be ideal, not to mention the fact that the transition does not have to buy a new car.
In the transport strategy of Russia stated that by 2030 the proportion of the fleet with engines on alternative fuels (primarily gas) must be at least 49 percent. While the process is in place for only 5%, the seventh place in Europe. All the benefits of low emissions (80 percent less), low cost, longer engine life, and even the most security — breaking on too few gas stations. At the end of last year there were about 500 all over the country to 15 thousand petrol. To stimulate this process, there are a number of state programs in the amount of two-four billion a year, and it is important that in a crisis they are not cut.
the country has developed hydropower (17-18 percent of the total power generation) and nuclear industry (19 percent). To them, ecologists have serious reservations, however, we must understand that the problem does not affect this climatic factor. Because of greenhouse gases, except water vapor, which is not included, hydro and nuclear power do not produce.
a total of more than 80 percent of the energy in Russia is produced stations with low greenhouse gas emissions. For this indicator, it is much ahead of most countries in the world.
According to the International renewable energy Agency IRENA, the technical potential of wind energy in the country is 80 thousand terawatt hours per year. This level of no one state. And let a large part of these resources is not in the most populated areas of the Russian power system is one of the most developed in the world — allows you to use them. Last year in Russia adopted the program of development of solar and wind, “Five gigawatts”. By 2024, it will bring energy production on the sun (SES) and wind power plants (WPP) up to 1 percent of the total. These figures look small, but due the work in the future — the desire to have their technology. The level of localization for wind farm is 65 per cent and for SES — 70 percent.
And yet the uniqueness of Growing upthese are that it accounts for 20 percent of the world’s forests.
it turns Out that to further enhance the green status of the country should stop illegal deforestation and reduce forest fires. It is difficult to argue that both Russia’s problem should be solved in any case.
the ecological future of the Russian forest can return the status of critical construction material. Scientists estimate that a return to the construction of houses made of wood and other biomaterials — that is, the rejection is extremely harmful in the production of concrete and cement — will reduce the amount of global carbon dioxide emissions by 20 per cent.
And this prospect does not look fantastic. For example, in Copenhagen already planning to build a completely wooden residential area, and in the UK ready to create all-wood stadium. Suitable wood for building construction. In Canada you can already see the 53-foot University hall of residence, Brock Commons, and in Bergen, Norway has a structure with a height of 51 meters. The record, however, is Mjøstårnet Tower in the Norwegian city of Brumunddal, the height of 85.4 meters. In the case of such construction Russia is able to provide for themselves and Europe. Of course, in the process, should closely monitor the renewal of the forest resource, but if the industry money will come, the problem is unlikely to be sharp.
All of the above speaks only of possibilities that open up in the background of the upcoming radical changes in the world economy.
Preparing plans for reducing emissions prepared by the Ministry of economic development, contains several scenarios.
In the baseline scenario, by 2050, emissions must fall by 36 percent from 1990 levels, and intense — 48 percent. This reference point formed during the preparation of the Kyoto Protocol.
If to count from the level in 2017, then even with an intensive process Russia, taking advantage of the drop in production in the 1990-ies, only wants to maintain by the time the emissions. At the same time Moscow has increased its commitments compared with the year 2016, when adopting the Paris agreement, and in September 2019 ratified it.
Experts point out that the main concern in developing the strategy, apparently, was the danger to economic growth. To fight for the reduction of emissions and to diversify the Russian economy in conditions of competition with China and India and their “dirty” production is really much more difficult.
However, the new conditions significantly change priorities. And even if not to take into account that, according to the Organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD), Russia in 2015 lost 447,6 billion�� dollars, or 12.5 percent of GDP, due dirty air and related problems. The situation, when the priority to the production of more cheap goods and services has failed. Demand are not cheap, and environmentally friendly products with low carbon footprint. So benefit from the green agenda looks much more powerful.
Paul Sadyrin
