Coronavirus have fallen off the financial markets and the dollar has passed the psychological threshold

Only for Monday, February 24, 500 of the world’s rich from the rating Bloomberg Billionaires Index lost a combined $139 billion So they became affected by day-the collapse of stock markets worldwide after the news that the coronavirus spread to Europe. More than others, at 4.8 billion — lost important on the planet rich Jeff Bezos and Bernard Arnault. From the Russian businessmen the greatest rubs the oil magnate Vagit Alekperov – $1.2 billion.

Not encouraged and the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov. He said that the Russian economy daily loses about 1 billion rubles because of the decline in trade with China and tourist traffic from this country: “this money is a download of hotels, transport, additional income in the retail trade”. That situation is fraught with serious macroeconomic consequences, warned the Finance Ministers and Central Bank governors of the G20 countries at a meeting in Riyadh. Automotive, pharmaceutical, aviation industries of the countries of the West to 90-95% dependent on supply chains from China, and it is terrible, said the head of the financial Department of France, Le Mayor. As the managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva admitted that if the spread of the disease will not stop in the coming weeks, the global economy will face hard times.

But what will happen to the ruble, overcame in the fall of the important psychological milestones: 65 per dollar and 70 for the Euro? According to senior analyst “BCS Premier” Sergei Suverov, the ruble “has moved to the active phase weakening”. In part he can to help the continued purchase of OFZ and global monetary stimulus, but if the epidemic escalates into a pandemic, a phenomenon broader scope, the domestic currency will continue to fall. Regarding the leading economies of the planet, then to the current realities better than other American feels less tied to China than European or Russian. This explains the strengthening of the dollar.

“the ruble as the currency of a developing economy commodity type, has not remained aloof from the General trend. Dollar 25 fevras has updated a maximum since September 11, 2019 and can be fixed within 64,75-66,00 rubles, – says senior analyst of information and analytical center “Alpari” Anna Bodrov. – The price of Brent crude has fallen sharply from nearly 5% as investors began to shy away from risks more noticeable normal. It would seem that emotional excitement surrounding the epidemic has gone on recession, but quarantine measures of the number of States triggered a stock panic.”

In Russia, the epidemic affected through the commodity channel, the negative impact of which — at current prices per barrel – largely neutralizes budget rule, says chief economist of “Alfa-Bank” Natalia Orlova. According to her, due to the slowdown in China’s GDP will suffer, rather, those domestic companies that are engaged in non-oil exports. And logistic company — due to restrictions on trade and reduction of tourist flow.

“While all this is happening within the framework of speculation, the current weakening of the ruble is not critical in nature. Much worse would be if the Western markets fall another percent by 10-12%. It is clear that oil as one of the most risky assets, could not fail to respond to negative external background. React and investors seeking to escape from risks”, – says senior analyst of “Finam” Sergey Drozdov.

in all circumstances, obviously, emerged a couple of years ago a popular “paradigm ruble rid of oil,” something is wrong. Sagging prices in the market of “black gold”and leads to inevitable weakening of the Russian currency. Albeit not on the scale of 2015, but still. The problem for Russia and its economy are other factors. For example, the restriction on the movement of vehicles entered in coronavirus-affected areas of China led to a decline in steel demand in China: by the end of February — to 31-43 million tons (equivalent to half of steel production in Russia for the whole year). What loss expect our metallurgical company that has partners in China, it is not very clear. What is clear is that financial uscheRBA can not be avoided.

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