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it is Possible and necessary on the figures to show how government overcome the economic crisis. It’s the economy, and indicators, which, as you know, in numbers, the language of Economics. They best demonstrate both successes and failures in economic development. And still now — not about performance, not about numbers. Moreover, I will try to make your analysis even without the numbers, but I hope that it will be equally clear.

We’ve already heard the position of the authorities: the economy is gradually recovering. Sure? Everything was done correctly, if you have already restored? So let’s see how to act in a crisis and how we operated.

First. When the crisis is only beginning, a realistic to imagine possible economic consequences. Remember: all domestic official forecasts in February — early March 2020 came from the fact that economic growth in Russia will continue. Already China was raging in full due to the coronavirus, in Europe started the same, but we all still seemed to be “chocolate”. Then, of course, stood all the forecasts correct — and when the forecaster does not need to be in order to say that the economy will fall.

Second. Developing tactics and strategy to combat the crisis, we must proceed from its distinctive features. What is the distinguishing feature of the current crisis? It is characterized by a high degree of uncertainty in the economic situation due to its first-shock — coronavirus. Infection new, there is no vaccine if and when it unraveled, it unraveled. Will the second wave of the pandemic is unclear.

As authorities have to act in the face of such high uncertainty? If possible, try to reduce it. In Russia, it turned out quite the contrary.

there Were at least three packages of economic measures aimed at combating the effects of coronavirus crisis. Moreover, the authorities have acted like this: to decide something, allocate some money, then evaluate if it’s enough, and then something else decides — and if it is again deemed insufficient, even taking any decision. Tactics: everything at once do not give, to help gradually.

For example, in the first package of economic measures announced by the President at the end of March, small and medium business most affected industries was granted a deferral of all taxes, except VAT, for the next six months.

Then he realized, and the business began to complain that do not where to pay taxes and six months. Then provided an opportunity to pay during the year on debts. It took some time, and again it became clear that the care is inadequate. Well, then finally decided to provide small and medium enterprises for the most affected sectors of bezvozmezdnoth financial assistance for the payment of two months salaries of $ 12 130 rubles a month per person. Then there was also some relief.

Someone will say: well, right, slowly and gradually need help. I say no, categorically wrong. Because in this approach, the government reduces uncertainty, but on the contrary, their actions increases it. Just the business and the population in such a situation it is unclear what to expect from the state, to which it may be stingy, dosed help.

Another thing, if the government is not greedy and immediately announced a large-scale support and business, and public money for this purpose was and is. Then people would know what will be given significant support that the state will protect them in such a difficult moment.

Third. If the authorities have the resources, don’t be greedy — you want to Finance anti-crisis measures in sufficient volume. In relative terms (percent of GDP), the value of funds allocated to support the economy during this crisis coronavirus, was substantially less than in developed countries. We have 3-3,5% of GDP, there is approximately twice. Again, these are not absolute figures and in percentage to GDP (Oh, still not without digits).

I Repeat: the money to support the economy in this period, the authorities were there — the same national welfare Fund. But we have an interesting argument from the authorities, you can hear when we are talking about spending from the Fund. In good times we save for a “rainy day”, and in bad times we try not to waste, because “maybe even worse”. Then why do we need it? No, this Fund is not needed. It has accumulated trillions of rubles, but to spend their power even in such a crisis do not want to.

Fourth. Success in confronting the crisis lies in the fact that not only to understand its distinctive features, but use them for a speedy recovery from the crisis and a successful post-crisis development.

Demonstrated whether the Russian authorities anything like that? I somehow didn’t notice. Let me explain what was going on. I think few would argue that the economy coronavirus after this crisis will be different. Maybe the government, few will oppose it. But it is not enough just to agree — it is necessary to take this into account in current and future economic policy.

we are Talking about a serious restructuring of the Russian economy. Our economy — oil, to be exact, raw. Yeah, we kind of like for years talked about the need to get off the oil needle. But this, as we know, nothing happened. Moreover, the raw nature of the economy only increased.

Now, this coronavirus crisis happened, which coincided with a sharp the fall in world oil prices and lower volumes of the Russian raw materials sector. We would in such a situation, to determine finally which of the industry we will rely in the future, if the primary sector shrinks. But we hear more. We are told that the global demand for oil will be restored if not by the end of this year, by the middle of next exactly.

But it won’t, because postcoronary economy will be structurally different. Her economy won’t need so much of hydrocarbon raw materials, global demand for oil will not recover to previous levels in the foreseeable future. All this is the result not so much of the General economic downturn, much of the development of remote work, Internet-technologies, services, delivery of goods, the struggle for the environment, etc.

So the impetus for the development of the industry and types of production, demand for goods and services which is in demand in the following conditions: Internet technology (and not only associated with the delivery of goods), courier services, food industry and, consequently, agricultural production, the pharmaceutical industry, etc.

But if so, then in a period of crisis, the state should strongly encourage the development of these “points of growth”. And this should be done not only for the sake of these activities. And because of these “points of growth” will be demand for new workers, who may come from affected industries.

What we have done in this regard today? Nothing of the kind is done. Who is in a good situation — that’s, like, and help nothing. Who in the bad — to help, give money “to maintain the pants”, just so nobody was fired. The clearest proof of this policy — the terms on which we give salary loans to small and medium enterprises for the most affected sectors. If you are in a year, today received a loan, retained 90% of the staff headcount, we can never return.

I’m not saying that victims do not need help. I am talking about: you can help in different ways. Our state currently provides meager assistance with the condition that everything would remain as it is. And it is possible to encourage the development of growing sectors, thus stimulating the restructuring of the economy. And that would be the most effective help. However, we do not have anything like that, but because you can put the authorities here fail on economic policy.

so Here is an attempt to evaluate the effectiveness of economic policy. No figures, no indicators intermediate results (the crisis is far from over) it is clear that the authorities do not cope very well with the crisis. Well, they themselves never is, of course, do not recognize. And we are their p��isnane and not needed. And everything is clear. But if still not clear, then the next time we show this by the numbers.