as of the morning of February 28, the stock indices of France and Germany fell by 3-4%, China and other Asian countries by 4-5%. The RTS and Mosberg failed on 3,5-5%, the largest decline over the past year and a half. Investors and traders are betting on the crisis, a detonator which promises to be a coronavirus.
As reported by CNN Business, American consumers, the wallets that hold two-thirds of the U.S. economy are beginning to be afraid to travel around the country and abroad, in shopping malls, cinemas, restaurants and other places where the money is spent. There is, of course, online shopping is delivery of food to the house, all this year from a year grows, but while the “ground” expenses still outweigh online. And in crisis times people are not knowing what will happen tomorrow, start all “press a penny” – don’t buy new houses, cars, furniture, home appliances, etc. the Receipt of money in the economy is declining and it begins to suffocate.
Well, if the coronavirus pandemic (“pandemic” is a word that is used more often) sends derailed not only the second largest economy in the world – Chinese, but also the first American, and all others sucked into this funnel, there is no doubt. According to the classical scheme: first, collapsing the stock exchange, after it collapsed due to the financial sector then the real economy.
speaking about the stock exchange, it lasted a decade with a tail stock holiday seems to have ended. Falling stock prices in recent days, said in an interview with Bloomberg Komal Sri-Kumar, founder and President of Global Strategies, is only the beginning, to be continued. The expert firmly believes that in the middle of this year in the U.S. goes into recession.
of Course, in the current crisis, as in any other, will not only be your “losers”, but their “beneficiaries”: to whom war and to whom mother is native. Grow quotations of securities of pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, particularly those closely involved in the development of a vaccine against coronavirus. I feel great manufacturers of protective masks and respirators, disinfectants, medical centers, laboratories and other actors of this sector – with the exception that medical-insurance companies, which shines a large increase in costs.
However, the medical-pharmaceutical industry, even coupled with health industry will not pull the entire economy. To save her needs first decisive action of state leaders and those at the helm of the main Central banks of the planet – starting with the Federal reserve system (FRS). But so far shows no signs of awareness of the scale of the impending crisis.
trump, in his characteristic manner shapkozakidatelskih bragging declares that he “is a brilliant work” on the prevention of the epidemic of the coronavirus and that the threat of an epidemic for America, does not exist (experts from the Centre for disease prevention and National Institute of health, USA to assess the situation quite differently).
And the Deputy Chairman of the Federal reserve Richard Clarida showcases the fascinating dialectic: on the one hand, he says that “the disruption of normal development of China’s economy could spread to the rest of the global economy”; on the other hand, he makes clear that in the near future the Federal reserve is not going to cut interest rates to stimulate the us economy. As one goes with the others, hard to understand, says Bloomberg.
According to the forecast of Bank of America, the world economy in 2020 will grow by only 2.8% is the worst indicator for all the years since 2009, when I finished the “Great recession”. Coronavirus superimposed on the other negative factors – trump unleashed a trade war and uncertainty about the future course of the United States: let’s not forget that in November America will be presidential elections and elections to Congress and other authorities.
If the global crisis broke out, it waves, as it was before – in 1998 and in 2008-m to year — the inevitablebut to cover Russia. Russian stock indexes are falling along with the world, and the ruble significantly weakened in recent weeks against the dollar and the Euro. As you know, in 2019 Russian GDP grew only by 1.3%, while in 2018, growth of Russian economy amounted to 2.5%. To what numbers will push the Russian economy coronavirus, adds to the sanctions and other negative factors, we can only guess…
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