Corona-crisis: the IMF expects a recession for the world economy – a view

The International monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered due to the Corona-crisis estimates for the world economy as strong as never before. “The world has changed in the past three months, dramatically,” it was said on Tuesday in the IMF’s world economic Outlook.

in 2020 will probably bring the worst recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s. “This crisis is like no other so far.” The economic situation is worse than during the financial crisis of 2008/09. For the next year, the IMF expects a robust recovery, but admits that this estimate depends primarily on the duration of the pandemic and at the end of waste can be.

All of the IMF member States affected

The world economy will shrink according to the IMF, in 2020, an increase of 3.0 percent. So the January has reduced its estimate by a whopping 6.3 percentage points. In the financial crisis, the world economy had stagnated in, for example, at the time industry were the primary countries affected.

But now, de facto, moved all of the countries affected. Positively, the IMF appreciated the fast and extensive rescue programs of many governments, the amount to several trillion dollars. The support from the Central banks coming from around the globe. According to the IMF, should be used in the second half of the year, a gradual recovery. 2021, the world economy is likely to grow by 5.8 per cent.

Italy and Spain hard

For the United States as the world’s largest economy made by the IMF in 2020, expected a decline of 5.9 percent. The economy of the Euro-Zone is expected to shrink by 7.5 percent. Switzerland’s economic performance is expected to fall to 6.0 percent. In the next year, the Swiss GDP is expected to grow again by 3.8 percent.

Worse is the situation in the particularly hard by the pandemic-affected countries, Italy and Spain. Here, the IMF expects a decrease of 9.1 or 8.0 percent.

After the crisis are on the up again and developing countries should lose a percentage of economic output. Better estimates for China, where the limitations of public life have already been relaxed are. The economy of the people’s Republic is expected to grow, according to the IMF, in 2020, by 1.2 percent, and in 2021 by 9.2 percent.

Also for the other countries, the Fund is more or less expected strong recovery for Germany in 2021, for example, an increase of 5.2 percent.

The pandemic could prove more durable, it is stated in the IMF report. This is currently the biggest Unknown in the estimates. Should not improve the health situation in 2021, could differ, the estimates for the world economy, in the worst case, by eight percentage points to the bottom – then the recession would continue next year, then. (cat/SDA)