The euphoria about the sharp increase in the trade and services via the Internet during a pandemic COVID-19 sooner or later will be held. But it will be the reality, created over three months of life in the mode of self-isolation— shopping on the Internet, online ordering of meals from restaurants, distance learning and sports. Further development of online services will change our everyday life, including the urban environment surrounding us, predicting urbanists. They hope this will finally push toward decentralization of cities when you do not have to travel to shop or course to another area.The counter on smartphonefree the opening days in Moscow targetrow and non-food shops after a three-month restriction on the background of the pandemic COVID-19 did not cause such excessive influx of visitors, such as in Madrid or Paris. The flow of customers and a slow recovery to the optimum amount of traffic is still far. The reason for this — the fears that gave rise to the coronavirus among Russian consumers, though some of them believe that the danger is greatly exaggerated, concluded analysts at the Boston Consulting Group (BCG). The first fear is economic in nature. In this respect, the Russian consumers are reducing their spending to a greater extent than consumers in other developing countries, found in BCG. If in Brazil, which like Russia suffered from COVID-19, in the early summer of 2020, 6% of Russians were planning to cut spending, while China is only 1%, in Russia there are 15%, U.S. — 16%. The second fear is psychological. Despite the gradual withdrawal in many cities of the limitations that existed during the regime of isolation, the Russians are still afraid to walk in crowded places. “During the regime of isolation of the tens of millions of people have received or expanded its online shopping experiences, and retailers rapidly increased the capacity for the collection of orders and delivery,” says partner Data Insight Boris Ovchinnikov. The part of the urban population, which had previously resisted the penetration of digital services into your life, was forced to surrender due to restrictions of movement during isolation, agrees the head of business Analytics at CBRE Claudia Tchistov. Russia in this regard is not unique. For example, in Britain during the quarantine e-commerce is also rapidly growing. In April, Internet sales in the country increased to 30.8% of the total retail turnover, and more in may to 33.4%.In our country these indicators in April and may was approximately the same. By the end of 2020 to be broken even the record growth in 2019, when the number of online orders, the market grew by 50%, predicts Boris Ovchinnikov. This year it expects a growth of 60% or more. Who are all these legislatively YES Group analyzed the behavior of the Russians, bathing goods and services online, and made the whole portrait series. Russia’s permanent Internet users has reached 75 million users in over 18 years of age and living in cities with a layering of more than 100 thousand people. This is not a hypothetical crowd of people, and specific people social scientists have grouped into types. Each group has developed its own YES Group online index with a maximum value of ten points.Such a higher category, and thus the first places in the ranking of Internet users, the researchers were awarded the “cream of the consumer society”. They can instantly go online, where willing to buy goods, to learn, to have fun. Such sociologists in Russia there are 6 million people of the total Internet audience. “At this time, digitalization passed, including services such as fitness and coaching,” says the head of the center for urban economy “KB Arrow” Elena Korotkova. In second place were the users included in the segment of “full house”: their online index was 9.4 points. There are 10 million people — not only residents of Moscow and St. Petersburg, but of all the cities. They are gently immersed in online, considering that this segment is more comfortable and advantageous than offline. Sociologists from the YES Group believes that this segment is special. “It has the highest capacity and high potential for growth in online consumption is quite limited with current experience of online orders”, — stated in the study. They add that, as a rule, families with children having a relatively high income. Another large segment of consumers of online services is 10 million people over 50 years old, which sociologists belong to the category of “silver wedding”. Version of the YES Group, their index is 7.8 points. Basically, they use the online services of banks and buy online home appliances & electronics. And, as it turns out, this category of online shoppers much more often uses a laptop than a smartphone. In the middle of the list with an index of 4.6 points are “advanced provincials,” as he called this category the researchers from the YES Group. It’s like the “cream of society of consumption”, but the inhabitants of cities with the population from 100 thousand to 500 thousand people. They, too, are ready to shop online, so also are the most attractive audience for online merchants. Another issue is the level of income, which is the background of the current crisis may significantly decrease. “E-commerce growth in terms of money, of course, by the end of 2020 will be smaller, agrees Boris Ovchinnikov — Although now increasing the frequency of online purchases, but declining average order value, driven by the apparent decline in incomes of the population.” One of the many CE��cops, which has 11 million people from all over the Internet audience in Russia — “spinster poor” with online index 3.9 points. Researchers from the YES Group has identified them as follows: “That citizens with below average income, interested in separate sub-categories online, for example, issue of Bank cards or order ready-made food.” For online retailers positioning themselves as discounters or sell, including the products with significant discounts, promising user categories can be “ordinary provincials” are residents of towns with population less than 1 million people with average income and only a modest experience of online shopping. Such users are willing to order online small appliances, a Bank card or can be remotely small loans. Although this is one of the most numerous categories of customers — 12 million people, but the growth potential of this segment is below average, analysts say. Finally, the last two categories — “seven of the shops” (over 10 million) and “idle (pre)pensioners” (about 7 million). The consumers living in the most straitened circumstances, and low potential on the Internet. Online index they expected a low of 2.4 and 1.5 points, respectively.Of the six categories above, particular preference is given to the “cream of the consumer society” and “advanced provincials”: YES Group survey shows that 53% and 52% of the respondents from these two segments prefer to shop online. While 43% of respondents who fall into the category of the “silver wedding” is also considered a convenient Internet shopping. Sedentary online the Rapid development of online services, including the delivery of prepared food from the store or purchase non-food items in the Internet will push to change urban spaces. “During the quarantine, was in demand dark story, dark-food (retail format in which the store performs the functions of a warehouse for the storage of goods,— said Elena Korotkova. For these directions the future — they will be popular in periods of quarantine and after them.” In this segment in the future may be non-trivial projects using elements of the economy of sharing, does not preclude Claudia Chistova. One kitchen is used by several companies in the segment of catering and manages an object of a single operator: such a mechanism worked for an American company Karma Kitchen, she leads by example. According to the expert, under the “sharing food” can be converted former industrial premises. However, to find objects for such projects and infrastructure for creating online retailers “last mile” will not be so difficult, since in BPemya crisis, the vacancy rate in street retail in residential areas is always serious. If fulfilled, the predictions, for example, restaurateurs, then the fall will come the mass wave of closings of food service establishments, despite the fact that Moscow authorities allowed in the second half of June to open them in full size. In this case, the empty space can rent a dark story and dark cuisine delivery service. In addition, we are waiting for the closure of some floral shops, beauty shops, small bakeries and shops near the houses. All of these establishments on the first floors of the houses create an atmosphere of a friendly urban environment. Imagine podkarantinnoy period we find near his home instead of a cozy restaurant or cafe the dark side with little Windows or “sharing the kitchen”, which will be prepared takeaway chefs of failed restaurants. No comfortable space and hostile environment of citizens.However, experts believe that this forecast is exaggerated and unlikely. In the study YES Group indicates that about 20% of respondents will not refuse to visit traditional stores at least to buy food. According to research by the Moscow center of urbanism, the development of online services and delivery significantly reduces the level of inequality in the districts. According to managing Director of the center Yulia Shulga, online reduces labour migration, areas of a little more than were owned by the residents. In addition, the development of digital services leads to improved quality of life in all age groups, she said. Further development of online services will lead to decentralization of cities and a more compact and local accommodation in their areas. “This overlaps with our concept of the 15-minute city, where all services should be within walking distance,”— said the expert. Today it became obvious that residents can do without offline shop 15 minutes walk from the house, if there is fast shipping. Of course, sums up Yulia Shulga, online services is hard to displace offline services, but the beginning of a kind of total digitalization of everyday life is necessary.Khalil Amine
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