the China for the first time in detail and convincingly responded to the request of the United States to join the negotiations on the start-3 Treaty (in which participates and Russia). Washington is very concerned about Chinese nuclear weapons, but Beijing has itself supplied the Americans is clearly not feasible for them to condition. What are in this situation, the interests of Russia?
China will join the negotiations between Russia and the United States on nuclear disarmament, only if Americans will reduce their nuclear Arsenal to China’s level. That is the condition put forward Beijing to Washington.
“We were asking US: when you ask China to join tripartite talks, what do you specifically mean?”, cite the Agency, the head of the Department of arms control Ministry of foreign Affairs of China Fu Tsung. Fu Cong stated “there are two ways to achieve parity in this matter.” First – if the Chinese side “will increase its nuclear Arsenal to the level of the United States.” The second implies that the United States will reduce its nuclear Arsenal to China’s level. While “the United States did not answer this question.”
In the question of China there is a logical trap, a “fork”. The US does not want nor increase of Chinese nuclear Arsenal, nor reduce their, USA just want to freeze the current level of Chinese nuclear forces – but the logic of the negotiation requires the achievement of parity. And now no parity in this matter between China and the United States really is not there. Of course, the US cannot respond to such a “plug” because they have nothing to answer.
“If the United States would say that they are willing to reduce your level to the level of China, we will be happy to join the negotiations on the next day”, – said the representative of the foreign Ministry of China. His words felt obvious irony. As explained by Fu Tsun, his country understands that “this will not happen”.
The negotiations, which referred to the Chinese diplomat, suggested the US administration. Donald trump and Secretary of state Mike Pompeo has repeatedly offered to reformat the Russian-American Treaty on strategic offensive arms (start-3), which expires in 2021. Start-3 could be extended to 2026 by mutual agreement of Moscow and Washington. If Russia is ready to extend the contract, the United States is ready to “bury” the agreement, if it will not be a trilateral Russian-American-Chinese. In addition, the White house makes Russia a number of conditions, including completely unrealistic and even boorish.
The agreement SNV-3 sets the framework for the strategic nuclear forces (SNF) of Russia and the United States – the Treaty allows countries to have no more than 1550 deployed strategic warheads. The total number of warheads both countries have much more – about 6 thousand.
China, unburdened by obligations under start-3, “it seems, intends to achieve some form of cores��on parity with USA and Russia”, said in June the special representative of the trump arms control Marshall Billingsley. In other words, he fears a sharp rise in the number of nuclear warheads in China.
At the moment China is seriously inferior to its nuclear Arsenal the U.S. and Russia. According to the Swedish Institute SIPRI, China has 320 nuclear warheads. In fact, the same figure mentioned and diplomat Fu Cong. According to him, the nuclear Arsenal of the US is twenty times greater than the Chinese, and the United States intend to invest $ 500 billion in the next ten years and 1.2 trillion in the next 30 years. So to ask China to participate in the so-called tripartite talks Moscow-Washington-Beijing “is not that other, as a pretext in order to free his hands for the receipt of military dominance,” said Fu.
However, according to the same SIPRI, China is also consistently increasing the number of nuclear warheads in the last year Arsenal added three dozen warheads.
“China is in principle able to build a significant number of their nuclear weapons, i.e. missiles of all types: strategic, not strategic, winged. According to many experts he had enough material, particularly weapons-grade plutonium to double and triple your Arsenal”, – said the newspaper OPINION of major-General Vladimir Dvorkin, former head of the Fourth Central research Institute of the Ministry of defense – Institute engaged in problems of development and use of nuclear weapons.
According to experts, the current situation resembles the situation of the early 1970s, but “exactly the opposite”. Then the Soviet leadership proposed to the Americans to make a multilateral agreement with participation of China, France and Britain. This White house refused, because “minorities” nuclear club will require from the Soviet Union and the United States to cut their arsenals to Chinese or French levels. In the end, the treaties of 1972 and 1979 became bilateral.
To expect that now the United States will find a common language with China, as it was in the days of President Richard Nixon and Secretary of state Henry Kissinger (when the USA and China “friends against” the Soviet Union) – is naive, I’m sure a military expert and sinologist, senior researcher, Institute of Far Eastern studies, Vasily Kashin. “The conflict between China and the United States more systematic and profound than between Russia and the United States. Yes, Moscow is in Washington much hate and anger in a whole range of reasons and can strike at the interests of the state of painful and humiliating blows. But the only U.S. rival in the struggle for world leadership can only be China,” said Kashin newspaper VIEW.
According to experts, China in fact does not require the US to reduce its Arsenal to the level of Chinese – on the contrary, the Chinese expect to increase their own strategically�� stock. “China has embarked on a path of rapid increase in nuclear forces, stated Kashin. – Made significant investments in expanding the production base to increase production of new types of strategic weapons.
It is possible that during the coming decade China will carry out the snatch and will be able to reach comparable and the USA level on the number of strategic nuclear warheads”.
Before China will make a breakthrough, negotiations can not be, I am sure Kashin. “They are not profitable to the Chinese – said the military expert. After China will come to the required level, we will be faced with difficult problems concerning the organization of arms control”.
And Americans do not want a three – or multilateral negotiations on start-3, says major-General Dvorkin. “The United States would hamper and complicate the negotiation process and try to get some preference in the case of signing a new contract,” – emphasizes the expert.
According to Dworkin, it is important for Russia that the United States extended the existing start Treaty without any involvement of the “Chinese card”. “They will have to bargain with us, desiring that we helped in some way to “fasten” to this China. But I am sure that the latter will not go in the coming years, any such agreements,” – said the expert. And explains this statement: “the Agreement is the ultimate openness, the need for dozens of inspections on its territory. Basically, you have to open all maps: what is where and in what quantity, to report all changes in weapons systems – that is something Beijing will never agree”.