the Central Bank has published the main indicators of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation in January–April, and the company-software developer “Megaplan” — the results of a survey among Russian entrepreneurs. The first document shows: the shock of the fall in oil prices in the balance remarkably well overcome. Entrepreneurs consider that the economic crisis has already begun, and it will be even worse.
the balance of payments is held about the movement of money from accounts, survey of entrepreneurs, sectoral aspects which “MK” followed, about the immediate prospects for their business. Themes, strictly speaking, distinct. But not so much that they really cannot be compared. Out of balance it follows that the state fears of a fall in oil prices have been exaggerated, however, from the point of view of balancing external cash flows. The survey shows that business is frankly terrible, he might as well shout “help”! That’s just the business I am sure that it is hardly heard.
What is called “oil painting”: the state for the sustainability of the balance of payments, the business almost of mourning. What will outweigh?
What about Bank? April was not so black as he is painted. With the average price of a barrel of Urals, according to the Finance Ministry, in the $18.2 (April 2019 — $71,5), the surplus of the Russian balance of trade was $3.5 billion, and the surplus on current account — $1.8 billion Out analyst Natalia Orlova of Alfa Bank makes three conclusions. First, the stability of the Russian balance of payments is higher than is commonly believed. Second, the active balance of trade, balance of payments remained even despite the fact that the decline in April imports, which the Bank previously estimated at 50%, now estimated at 20%. Thirdly, the development of the situation allows to expect that the dollar by the end of 2020, will cost 67 rubles.
Great! The current status of the balance of payments economic crisis, however, does not change. The Ministry of economic development, as Central Bank is waiting for the fall of the Russian GDP in 2020 by 5%.
It is the crisis that defines the mood of entrepreneurs. Here are the most eloquent results of the survey. 50.6% of respondents consider the current situation a crisis, but in the future expect further deterioration. 26% said that now in Russia there is no crisis, but he probably will develop after completion of the pandemic. 83.4% of no hope for state assistance in overcoming the consequences of the crisis, rely on state aid only 5.2%.
How did you combine the concerns of entrepreneurs and joy of the Central Bank for balance of payment? The comparison showed that what’s good for the state, not necessarily good for business. The problem is that a state primarily concerned with its own financial health.
Tatyana Golikova, the top bureaucratsto with experience, growing up in the Ministry of Finance and has become one of the leaders of the government, one of the TV talk show said, Recalling that Russia is “easily survived the crisis of 2009.” Meanwhile, in the year of the fall of the Russian economy grew by an impressive 7.9 per cent of the same “lightness”. Golikova said that meant the Federal budget, at that time already has the support of reserve funds. This is a classic “Freudian slip”.
the Main thing: just as “easily” as in 2009, pass the current crisis just will not succeed. Then the average oil price was at $60 a barrel, today it is a pipe dream. Besides the balance of payments despite the openness of the Russian economy, of course, not important measuring economic power of the state. As for the state of the Federal budget, it is expected that its deficit will be in 2020, 6% of GDP. This figure takes us back to 1990. Saves the national welfare Fund.
But doubt that the government will be primarily to monitor their own financial condition is not necessary. So the sad tune from a survey of entrepreneurs will be in 2020 to sound louder and louder.
