Specially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta Mikhail Zeltser, an expert on the stock market, “BCS”, to analyze the world situation and gave a forecast for the start of the recovery in the financial markets.
– As the current crisis is humanitarian-economic nature, – says the expert – and the key to the stabilization of the financial market is a combination of two main factors.
first, strict measures of social and geographical distancing will reduce the spread of infection and the dynamics of lethal outcomes that will reduce the burden on the health system and make a speedy recovery in consumer confidence and manufacturing activity.
second, the preservation of soft monetary and fiscal policy of the financial authorities in the world it is necessary to pass the acute phase of the crisis with minimal losses to the private and corporate sectors of the economy and prevent a liquidity crisis in the financial system.
With the last task, the majority of States handle, dropping to a minimum interest rates, providing liquidity to the market. But the belated and sometimes irresponsible policy of some countries in combating the epidemic of coronavirus causes severe humanitarian consequences.
nevertheless carried out a complex of measures leading powers in the next months can give positive results that will contribute to the easing of restrictions and the beginning of a long process of recovery of national economies.
According to our estimates, the world economy goes the way of the “W-shaped” recovery, when a sharp drop in consumer demand of the first wave February-March will be a second wave of decline, based on stagnation of industrial capacity.
Macroeconomic models imply the stabilization of the situation towards the end of the third quarter of 2020. Under favorable circumstances, return to the path of sustainable development can be expected before the first quarter of 2021.
In this financial market, who plays a leading indicator of the processes of the real economy, can lay the increased expectations of stabilization ahead of time. Observed in April, the rebound of stock indices and strengthening of national currencies of developing countries focused on the export of raw materials, while still remaining low energy prices, confirmation.
the Russian ruble is experiencing a whole range of factors internal and external environment. Outside of a dominant effect on the exchange rate of the domestic currency has a dynamics of movement of global capital, the cost of raw materials and metals, the risks of confrontation through sanctions.
the loose monetary policy of the Central Bank of Russia aims to accelerate ek��economic processes inside the country, providing competitive advantages to domestic producers and spurring consumer demand. However, the coronavirus brings about changes in the pace of economic development.
Despite the objective limitations, in the aggregate pricing factors of the Russian ruble, we expect to maintain the relative stability of the national currency. Expectations of a speedy passage of the acute phase of the global crisis will boost appetite for risky assets, including the ruble.
Without shocks from external factors, the trend of strengthening the ruble could continue. As a guideline we do not exclude the depreciation of the dollar to 70 roubles, and even up to 67 rubles (the last time the U.S. currency was at the border on 7 March 2020). The Euro may fall to 77-75 rubles. These indicators of the markets observed even before the who declared the pandemic coronavirus.
Despite the likelihood of a more prolonged process of recovery of the real sector, the range of the above values, a ruble can be achieved by the end of the second quarter of 2020.