Brazil between Monday in the second-to-last week of a campaign strained before the second round of the presidential election, on 28 October, which will show if Jair Bolsonaro (far right) confirms its status as a big favorite or if Fernando Haddad (left) was able to catch up. On one side, Bolsonaro, ex-army captain who promises to liberalize the wearing of weapon, launch a new wave of privatization, distribution of cabinet positions in general, and to end the corruption. On the other hand, Fernando Haddad, a university teacher, which has replaced the former left-wing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, imprisoned for corruption and declared ineligible. He promises, in the name of the workers ‘Party (PT), social policy, and is projected as a guardian of democracy, which is short, according to him, a “risk” if Bolsonaro was elected. The week following the first round was marred by a series of attacks against left-wing activists attributed to supporters of the candidate of the extreme right. Bolsonaro and Haddad accusing each other of spreading false information that abounds on social networks.

with 46 % of the vote in the first round, Jair Bolsonaro has great chances to be elected. He would have preferred to “bend the case’ on 7 October. Fernando Haddad, who got 29 %, need a dramatic turnaround to give the PT his fifth consecutive win in a presidential election. Both candidates have moderated their speech in order to seduce the voters of their competitors and non-voters. “Haddad should change the strategy, more than his opponent, adopting a more centrist, particularly in terms of economic policy,” said the Agence France-Presse Thomaz Favaro, of the consultancy firm Control Risks. The first survey of the between-two-towers placed Bolsonaro far in the lead in voting intentions, with 58 % against 42 % for Haddad.

Bolsonaro leader on the television and the social networks

Stabbed on the 6th of September, Jair Bolsonaro, has been hospitalized for three weeks, deprived of the countryside in the street and televised debates. He has staked everything on the social networks, with success : it has nearly 7.5 million followers on Facebook. But it has for this between-two-towers another weapon : the television spots of the campaign’s official : five minutes, such as Haddad, compared to 8 seconds before the first round due to the low weight of his social democrat Party (PSL). Each of the candidates spent most of his first spots to attack the other with virulence, rather than to present his program. Six televised debates were planned before the second round, but Jair Bolsonaro has admitted that he could not go to any ” for strategic reasons “. It is not, in fact, almost no need to campaign.

An impossible sacred union against Bolsonaro ?

If a part of the population called for a sacred union against Bolsonaro in the name of democracy, many Brazilians prefer to instead vote for the far right to avoid at any price that the PT should return to the power. They accuse the party of all disorders of the Brazil, of the corruption to the economic crisis through the problems of violence. This makes more difficult the formation of a front to make the dam to the far right, as was the case in France when Jean-Marie Le Pen and his daughter Marine, have arrived at the second tower. This is the reason why Haddad has begun to shift away from his mentor to avoid being seen as the puppet of which Lula is pulling the strings.

Turn to the right in South America

In 2016, the arrival in Brazil of the conservative Michel Temer has confirmed the right turn of South America, found especially in Argentina, Chile and Paraguay. The duel Bolsonaro-Haddad will determine if the first economy of Latin America confirms this trend. If the candidate of the extreme right drives home the point that the Brazil risk with the PT look like in Venezuela, ” devastated “, Haddad says that the recipes of neo-liberal, his opponent could trigger a financial crisis like the one experienced by Argentina.

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