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Belarus is gripped by massive protests against Alexander Lukashenko, who are held under the form of pickets in support of an alternative candidate for the presidency of the country Svetlana Tikhanovski. From 2-million Minsk, up to 100-thousand Orsha on the streets, thousands of people under the flag of the Belarusian people’s Republic, demanding the release of political prisoners, fair elections, fighting corruption and so on. Meanwhile Lukashenko conducts a review of the troops, which said that he was ready to leave the army to disperse the Maidan after presidential election.

Tikhanovski regularly emphasizes that in the future it is not going to go into politics because it is dirty business, and it is, above all, a loving mother and wife. Immediately after winning the presidential elections, she intends to organize a new vote, which will elect another President.

Masovogo pickets in support Tikhanovski against Lukashenko began in Belarus on July 19 in Minsk. Then came to the rally from 7 to 10 thousand people. However, on 25 July in Brest the street took about 2.5 thousand people, although Tikhanovski and her team are unable to come to the city. During the week she visited Orsha, Vitebsk, Deep, Novopolotsk, Grodno, Borisov, and so on.

Meanwhile, Alexander Lukashenko can also be found with the voters. For example, he came in the 5th separate special purpose brigade in Maryina Gorka, where he said that after 2010 (there was also mass protest against his election), he felt the need in the army with a dual purpose. According to him, the main thing is to prevent independence.

meanwhile, more and more often hear that Belarus is possible the so-called Armenian version of the velvet revolution. We will remind, on 31 March 2018, a Deputy of the Armenian Parliament Nikol Pashinian went on a walking trip from Gyumri to Yerevan, to raise the people against the election of President Serzh Sargsyan, Prime Minister of the Republic of (country just switched to a parliamentary form of government). As a result, first in Yerevan and then in all the major cities of Armenia began many thousands of indefinite protest against Sargsyan and his “Republican party”. Active confrontation of the regime with the people lasted about two weeks, but to disperse the protesters did not, as rose literally the entire country and the ruling elite were on the take.

“We are in a unique situation when talking about war and Maidan says the incumbent President and the opposition calling for fair elections. Now inspired an absolutely wild idea that can be used by the army… I’m sure that many officers and soldiers never agree. The government does not understand that it is not in the name of the candidate in presidents, and in the presence of a massive Welaniya Belarusians to elect a new President. More recently, it was impossible to imagine so massive rallies across the country. Belarusians support all alternative candidates, hoping that then they all agree. As for example the “velvet revolution” in Armenia, let’s see how this will be August 10, but I believe we all still have a chance to get an honest vote count. If there is an honest count, in Belarus will be the second round of the presidential election. In the first round, each candidate should mobilize voters to vote for Lukashenko. But already in the second round must all unite around one alternative candidate” – said “MK” presidential candidate of Belarus Andrei Dmitriev.

Much more modest success of the opposition in an interview with “MK” praised the Belarusian political scientist Alexander Klaskouski:

– you Need to consider an important point: Tikhanovski spends protest actions, and legal rallies in his support in the election campaign. This was the period of the so-called “sign of revolution” is the second half of may and the first half of June. Then, too, was a kilometer queue. But it was allowed by the authorities actions as they took place in the framework of the pickets. When it comes to unauthorized activity, and the reaction of the authorities is different, and Belarusians begin to behave more cautiously. Especially in the current campaign have already been fairly serious repression: arrested more than a thousand people, many received fines, administrative arrests, against Sergei Tikhanovski and his associates opened a criminal proceedings for street activism. The authorities did their best to neutralize the ringleaders of the protest. For example, Pavel Sevyarynets released only in the 20’s of August. In addition, Lukashenka intimidates Belarusians use of troops, recalls the shootings in Andijan, and so on.

In turn, the joint staff Tikhanovski, Tsepkalo and Babariko also behaves cautiously. The maximum that they can afford, it talks about what you may have to defend their choice to protect their votes. But no specifics no, because then you can get criminal charges for incitement to violent overthrow of the regime, or Tikhanovski can just withdraw from the race, accusing him of violating the law. Well, they may consider that the electorate of Babariko and Tsepkalo – it came from the establishment, they are not revolutionaries. At the same time Sergei tikhanovski woke more than a desperate public.

In addition to this, the government is certainly prepared. Lukashenko is not by chance insists that no Maidan, he will not allow. For example, will block the main approaches to the center in order to suppress the protests in the Bud. With a very high probability Lukashenko will retain power, non the question of what price – 9 a few days can become very dramatic.

And there is the potential for the protests continued, for example, in September and October?

Initially the plan was among those opposition members who are already behind bars. For example, Paval Sevyarynets promoted the idea of a national strike in the spring. He believes that in conditions of actual absence of elections there is no other way to defeat the regime. But this strategy is very difficult to implement. First, neutralized by the organizers. Second, people are being intimidated. Thirdly, the economy of Belarus consists mainly of public enterprises, and it is easier to keep people in subjection.

overall, I think that after the elections, supporters of change will be a period of frustration. Someone will go into internal migration, some will go abroad… there will Come a temporary drop in political activity. But then will rise a new wave, because Lukashenko does not solve the internal problems of the country.

Read also: “a political prosecution”: in Belarus, the ex-banker of Babariko want to deny protection