the Bank of Russia expects that the dynamics of retail lending in 2020 would be zero or negative, said the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina. In her estimation, the decline of consumer in 2020 will be “2% or a little more,” and the results automobile loans could fall 10%.
a failure in crediting of the population means an increase in the share of problem loans in the retail portfolio, according to analysts of rating Agency of the NKR. According to them, zero growth of consumer lending means that the banking sector loses the only high-margin source of operating income, and this can cause a sharp drop in margins in the whole system. As a result, the losses that may result in additional support measures – from regulatory relief to the recapitalisation of individual banks, admit in NCR.
According to Nabiullina, banks entered the crisis with a good margin of safety on capital, but their resources are not unlimited. However, banks do not belong to the first circle of victims because of the situation in the economy and the money they have, stressed the head of the Central Bank.
the Bank of Russia lowered its key interest rate to 5.5% and almost certainly will continue the process in the summer. But expect a noticeable reduction of interest rates on deposits are unlikely to have – banks will need to retain customers, especially after the introduction of taxation of interest on large deposits. Correction rates on loans will definitely affect the mortgage as the most reliable segment, but the rates on retail loans and loans to enterprises, except for special programs, will be reduced to a lesser extent due to the increased risks.